SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1019 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Great Lakes region, but an ill defined secondary triple point low exists farther south over east-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the FL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the low 70s with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the Savannah GA region southwest towards the Apalachicola region. Modest buoyancy exists ahead of this line across the eastern FL Panhandle and extreme southeastern GA, with MUCAPE in and around 1000-1500 j/kg region. Moderate deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to continue to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region will likely remain modest, with severe potential peaking/having already peaked. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe storms are still possible, mainly along the cold front in the eastern FL panhandle. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief tornado is still possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast this afternoon. Warm-air advection shower activity this morning has begun to subside. As these showers continue to clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025Read more
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