Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible tonight from parts of the Tennessee
Valley to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, and along parts of the
West Coast. No severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
this evening. At the surface, a trough will move toward the southern
part of the Eastern Seaboard. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will be possible ahead of the mid-level trough and near the surface
trough this evening into tonight. Additional storms may occur near
the coasts of northern California, Oregon and Washington ahead of a
shortwave trough. No severe threat is expected through tonight
across the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 02/01/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United
States through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the removal of the Marginal
risk area over the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. Recent
radar, satellite, and lightning trends all indicate weakening
thunderstorms along the eastward-moving front, owing to very
marginal lapse rates/instability and limited deeper-layer forcing
for ascent. While strong background flow and earlier heating could
still support locally strong gusts with showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon, the potential for organized severe storms
appears low. For details on any remaining low-end/isolated risk for
strong convective gusts, reference MCD #61.

..Weinman.. 01/31/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/

...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle...
A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS
Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping
eastward across AL/GA/FL.  Southerly low-level winds ahead of the
front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the
northward transport of Gulf moisture.  Dewpoints in the 50s and
lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in
MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg.  One small area of slightly
greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central
FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows
broken clouds and more heating potential.  This area remains in the
MRGL risk.

Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the
Carolinas.  A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in
the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be
along, and more likely behind, the front.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on
Sunday.

...Synopsis...

A low-amplitude westerly upper flow regime will persist across the
CONUS on Sunday. Surface low pressure over the central Plains will
result in some modest baroclinicity across the southern Plains. The
resulting southerly low-level flow will transport modest Gulf
moisture northward across TX, but deeper moisture will remain
confined to the coast. Further north, a cold front will develop
south across the northern Intermountain region and northern Plains.
Cold Arctic air and strong surface high pressure will build south in
the wake of the front. Given poor boundary-layer moisture and little
upper-level support, thunderstorm potential appears low.

..Leitman.. 01/31/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on
Saturday.

...Synopsis...

Low-amplitude, quasi-zonal upper level flow will emerge across the
CONUS as a shortwave trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast early
Saturday. At the surface, low pressure centered over southern
portions of the Canadian Prairies will shift east, while a trailing
cold front moves across the northern Rockies/High Plains region. A
weak frontal zone across the FL Peninsula will dissipate, while
strong surface high pressure persists across the eastern U.S.
northern low-level flow across the western Atlantic and Gulf will
result in a dry and stable airmass across much of the U.S. east of
the Rockies. 

Precipitation is more likely across portions of the Pacific
Northwest as moist onshore deep-layer flow  streams over the region.
Cold midlevels will result in steep lapse rates and meager elevated
instability. A lightning flash or two is possible along the WA coast
with low-topped convection, but thunderstorm coverage is expected to
remain less than 10 percent and more likely offshore.

..Leitman.. 01/31/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts are possible this
afternoon across parts of the central Florida Panhandle and
vicinity.

...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle...
A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS
Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping
eastward across AL/GA/FL.  Southerly low-level winds ahead of the
front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the
northward transport of Gulf moisture.  Dewpoints in the 50s and
lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in
MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg.  One small area of slightly
greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central
FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows
broken clouds and more heating potential.  This area remains in the
MRGL risk.

Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the
Carolinas.  A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in
the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be
along, and more likely behind, the front.

..Hart/Gleason.. 01/31/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts will be possible this
afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast.

...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into southwest GA...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the lower
MO Valley this morning.  This upper feature is forecast to evolve
into an open wave and accelerate eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast by early Saturday morning.  Strong
southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the base of the
larger-scale trough over the central Gulf Coast states today.  In
the low levels, an effective cold front extends southward through
western AL from an occluded surface low over the mid MS Valley. 
This front will push east during the day with southerly low-level
flow acting to advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the
FL Panhandle and AL/GA.  Scant buoyancy sampled this morning on the
12 UTC Birmingham, AL raob (100 J/kg MUCAPE) will contribute to
isolated thunderstorm development today.  However, weak lapse rates
and weak convergence associated with the front will likely limit
storm intensity.  Uncertainty remains whether robust updrafts can
develop with the low-topped convective band moving east across
southern AL this morning.  Intensification of this band is quite
uncertain at this time given a dearth of a severe signal in
convection-allowing model guidance and observational trends trending
lower.  Will maintain a low-probability wind highlight for now given
the aforementioned uncertainty.  

Elsewhere, weak instability may lead to isolated storms over central
GA into the Carolinas later today.  Forecast soundings show intense
flow fields with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE possibly developing with a
neutral surface-1km AGL layer before frontal passage.  Confidence in
a strong storm over this region is low---precluding severe
probabilities.

..Smith/Bentley.. 01/31/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0409 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A generally low-amplitude upper pattern, characterized by fast
westerly flow aloft, is expected to prevail through the medium-range
period.  Global models are in reasonably good agreement with most of
the synoptic-scale details into day 6 (Wednesday), after which
differences become increasingly apparent.

Days 4-5, the generally zonal flow pattern will persist, though some
minor amplification of troughing over the West is expected Day 5, as
the western Canada low drifts southward toward/into the Pacific
Northwest.  A rather subtle, lead shortwave trough is forecast to
shift across southern California into the Desert Southwest late day
5 (Tuesday), and into the central Plains through the first half of
day 6.  An associated, central Plains surface low is forecast to
evolve, with a cold front shifting out of the southern Rockies
toward the southern Plains.  With favorably strong flow aloft, any
elevated destabilization sufficient to support convective
development may result in some potential for hail across central
portions of the country.  At this time, however, expectations for
weak instability overall, and likelihood that the boundary layer
remains stable, should preclude appreciable surface based
thunderstorm potential.  In any case, any potential for severe
weather appears too low to warrant areal inclusion at this time.

The surface front should continue eastward/southeastward across the
U.S. days 6-7, but even weaker instability expected ahead of the
boundary should preclude any appreciable severe weather potential.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal at best across the
U.S. on Sunday.

...Discussion...
The large-scale pattern will remain largely unchanged on Sunday,
with zonal flow aloft to remain in place.  Disturbances in the flow
field -- largely across the northern U.S. and southern Canada --
will continue advancing eastward through the period.  

A weak surface low is progged to lie near the Manitoba/North Dakota
border early Sunday, associated with the aforementioned short-wave
energy embedded in the fast westerlies aloft.  This low is expected
to deepen with time, as it shifts across Ontario, allowing continued
southward advance of a cold front across the Intermountain West, and
the Plains.  With a reinforcing advance of Arctic air spreading
southward behind the front, and high pressure prevailing south of
the boundary, little risk for thunderstorms is evident through the
period.

..Goss.. 01/31/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on
Saturday.

...Discussion...
As an upper short-wave trough moves off the East Coast early in the
period, flow aloft will trend quasi-zonal across the U.S. through
Sunday morning.  Emanating from a low over the southwestern Canada
coast, several short-wave features are expected to eject eastward
across the northern U.S. within the evolving/fast westerly flow
regime.

At the surface, a weak low is forecast to shift eastward across
southern Canada, as the aforementioned short-wave energy shifts
eastward.  A trailing cold front associated with this low will shift
southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through the
period.  Elsewhere, cold frontolysis will occur over the Florida
Peninsula, as trailing portion of the cold front crossing the
western Atlantic sags southward with time.

With largely cool/stable air across most of the country, little
thunder potential is evident.  A flash or two may occur across parts
of the northwestern U.S., within an area of showers across this
region.  A flash or two may occur offshore from Florida, but
lightning is not expected inland.  Overall, any lightning over the
U.S. should remain well below 10% coverage thresholds, and thus no
thunder areas will be included for this forecast.

..Goss.. 01/31/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this
afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast.

...Central Gulf Coast...
A mid-level trough will move across the Ozarks and eastern parts of
the southern Plains today, as a 90 to 110 mid-level jet translates
east-northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the
surface, a trough will move through the central Gulf Coast states.
Surface dewpoints ahead of the trough will be in the 60s F from the
Florida Panhandle northeastward into southeast Mississippi and
southwest Alabama. Due to extensive cloud cover, instability will
remain weak across the moist sector, with MLCAPE likely peaking
below 500 J/kg in most areas. In spite of this, scattered
thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of the trough, aided by
large-scale ascent within the right entrance region of the mid-level
jet. This feature will contribute lift and strong deep-layer shear
that may be sufficient for marginally severe storms this afternoon.
Isolated rotating storms will be possible, the stronger of which
could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also
occur. The severe threat is expected to progress eastward across the
central Gulf coast during the afternoon, affecting parts of
southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle by late
afternoon.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/31/2025