Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NC...ERN VA...SERN PA...THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND SRN/CNTRL NJ...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity may continue to pose the risk for locally
damaging wind gusts while overspreading the Chesapeake Bay and
northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity late this evening.

...01Z Update...

...Mid Atlantic...
Given the modest strength of the southwesterly deep-layer mean flow
(around 40 kt), with the loss of boundary-layer heating,
thermodynamic profiles near/east of the pre-frontal surface trough
across the Mid Atlantic vicinity are becoming increasingly marginal
for convective development capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

...Florida...
A couple of strong thunderstorms linger near a weak surface trough
across the east central Florida Peninsula, where mixed-layer CAPE is
moderately large, but diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. 
Given the rather weak lower/mid-tropospheric flow and modest
deep-layer shear, thunderstorm intensities are expected to wane
within the next hour or two.

...Deep South Texas...
Another isolated strong to severe thunderstorm has developed to the
east of Laredo near a diffuse dryline, as an initial severe storm
near the San Antonio vicinity dissipated.  However, given the
inhibition associated with warm, dry lower/mid-tropospheric air
present across the region, this latest cell is not expected to be
long-lived, as boundary-layer cooling proceeds and inhibition
increases further.

..Kerr.. 04/01/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of
the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of
damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.

...20z Update...
Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this
afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and
east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the
Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related
tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue
east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward
the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is
still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward
the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale
Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional
details.

Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across
the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could
focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset.

..Guyer.. 03/31/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level
shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes
and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks
into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. 
The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a
trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the
Atlantic States and Southeast.  

...Southeast to the Carolinas...
A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians
south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River.  An extensive cloud
shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger
heating this afternoon.  However, a moist airmass characterized by
lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will
yield weak to moderate buoyancy.  

Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably
result in a re-invigoration of the convective line.  Some
strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a
corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA
northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas.
The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally
veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. 
Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. 

...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast...
Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic
states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front.  Appreciable
heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through
the upper 70s deg F.  Despite some mixing of boundary-layer
moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms
developing this afternoon.  Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and
moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered
damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph).

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the
ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant
tornadoes are expected.

...Synopsis...
No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from
tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast
portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still
appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread
damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in
subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. 

A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will
move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions
on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads
parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to
the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe
storms expected along/ahead of the front.  

...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday
morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may
persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or
redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction
with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of
substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence
of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear
will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if
surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region
during the afternoon and evening. 

...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity...
Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into
the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a
persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary
surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region
with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level
difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the
front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. 

The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells,
with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer
shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some
potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the
likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal
corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any
supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very
large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. 

With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day
storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of
widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook.
However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will
eventually be needed for some part of the region. 

...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight...
A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western
CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge
from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to
slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex,
with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday
morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to
strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of
organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will
accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve
with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary.

..Dean.. 03/31/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night across the central and southern Plains. The greater
coverage of storms is expected across parts of central and eastern
Kansas, but significant severe storms will be possible farther south
into Oklahoma and north Texas as well. All hazards are possible,
including the potential for very large hail and a couple strong
tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the
western/central CONUS on Tuesday, as a powerful jet (80-100 kt at
500 mb) begins to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains later
in the period. In response to this trough and jet, a surface cyclone
will intensify through the day across the central High Plains,
before moving northeastward toward the lower MO Valley Tuesday
night. 

Rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south
TX, but will stream rapidly northward through the day and evening in
response to the deepening cyclone and a strong low-level jet. The
magnitude and timing of richer moisture returns remain somewhat
uncertain, and will be crucial for the potential of storm initiation
along/east of the dryline through early evening. 

Initial high-based storms are expected to develop during the
afternoon across parts of central NE, where low-level moisture will
remain limited but stronger early-day ascent will spread across the
region. Buoyancy will likely remain modest this far north, but
increasing low-level and deep-layer flow/shear could support a
threat of isolated strong/severe gusts and hail as this convection
spreads east-northeastward into the early evening.  

Farther south, the environment along/east of the dryline into parts
of western/central KS/OK and northwest TX will become increasingly
favorable for organized severe storms, as upper 50s to mid 60s F
dewpoints (greater with south extent) spread northward and
deep-layer flow fields become rather intense. However, lingering
CINH will tend to inhibit initiation through much of the afternoon,
and the late arrival of richer boundary-layer moisture results in
uncertainty regarding potential for storm development through early
evening. 

Any supercells that can develop along/east of the dryline would pose
an initial threat of large to very large hail and localized severe
gusts. Warm-sector supercells that are able to persist into the
evening will encounter increasing boundary-layer moisture and
low-level shear/SRH and would pose an increasing tornado threat. The
Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but any
increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would
necessitate one or more categorical upgrades across this area. 

There is greater confidence in storm coverage during the evening
into late Tuesday night across parts of eastern KS and western MO. 
A strong (60+ kt) low-level jet will become focused into this
region, as the surface low begins to move east-northeastward across
KS. Convection may remain slightly elevated across this area, but
moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear
will support a threat of large/very-large hail and severe gusts.
Surface-based supercells could persist near the southern periphery
of this cluster, with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 supporting a
tornado threat, including the conditional threat of a strong
tornado. An Enhanced Risk has been added where confidence is
greatest in storm coverage within an increasingly favorable
environment. 

Overnight, additional storm development will be possible along the
cold front into parts of OK/TX, within a very favorable conditional
environment for organized storms. Given the timing and a tendency
for deep-layer flow to become parallel to the front, questions
remain regarding the mode of overnight storms and whether they will
be surface-based, but some all-hazards severe threat could persist
through the end of the forecast period.

..Dean.. 03/31/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the
Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of
damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern
Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while
another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the
eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop
northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough,
while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much
of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor
of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based
thunderstorms for much of the day.

...Southeast to the Carolinas...
Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the
northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although
there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate
instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to
support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across
the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon.
While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across
this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft
rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and
a threat for a couple of tornadoes.

Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward
extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating
of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak
destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows
re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas
by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward
across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as
strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in
tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to
support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a
bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level
flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few
embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. 

...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast...
Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the
cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered
thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread
east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With
enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead
shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for
damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually
moves offshore.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS
as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern
Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong
west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through
the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping
will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH
Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period.

...D4/Thursday...
As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front
will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A
secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge
over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains.
A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will
focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The
broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates
will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust
deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast
TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys.

Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid
Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest.
Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist
airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk.
However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of
thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the
potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the
low-level airmass.

...D5/Friday...
The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low
is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and
northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX,
OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH
Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River
vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front.
However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to
multiple preceding days of convective potential.

...D6/Saturday and beyond...
Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and
through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving
eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to
suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While
some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow
near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the
Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and
associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe
probabilities.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night from the Lower Great Lakes, the Mid MS Valley and the
ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant
tornadoes are expected.

...Synopsis...
A powerful, negative tilt, upper trough will move out of the Plains,
over the Midwest and into the Great Lakes Wednesday. Accompanied by
a 100+ kt jet streak, very strong forcing for ascent will overspread
a large unstable warm sector from the Great Lakes, OH Valley and MS
Valley. A strong cold front will sweep eastward with widespread to
numerous thunderstorms expected. 

An outbreak of widespread severe storms including: significant
tornadoes, severe wind gusts and very large hail is possible
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

...Midwest to the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley...
Early in the forecast period, one or more clusters of thunderstorms
are likely to be ongoing across portions of KS/MO into the upper MS
Valley. Very strong synoptic ascent at the exit region of the H5 jet
may allow these storms to persist through the morning as the air
mass downstream slowly destabilizes. Re-intensification is possible
as storms move farther northeast into the lower Great Lakes by early
to mid afternoon. Depending on the timing, these storms may also
outrun the warm sector. This could limit the severe potential to
points farther south if the airmass is unable to recover.
Regardless, very strong effective shear (60-80 kt) and large
hodographs would support organized storms capable of significant
damaging winds, and a tornado risk.

...Mid MS Valley...
Immediately southeast of the primary upper low track, more subtle
forcing for ascent will overspread a rapidly moistening air mass
across the Ozarks, eastern OK and the Mid MS Valley. The air mass
will rapidly destabilize and become uncapped with MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg likely by mid to late morning. Storms are likely to
form by midday as ascent overspreads a pre-frontal trough/diffuse
dryline. Some boundary parallel flow is likely suggesting a mixed
mode of cellular and bowing segments. However, the very strong
troposphereic shear profiles, courtesy of a 50+ kt low-level jet,
favor significant supercells as the primary storm mode. A secondary
surface low will serve to further back low-level flow and expand
very large hodographs from the late afternoon into the evening
hours. Very large hail, significant tornadoes and damaging winds all
appear likely. The severe threat will continue overnight with some
upscale growth across the Mid MS/TN Valley within the broadly
unstable air mass. 

Consideration was given to higher severe probabilities across parts
of the Mid MS Valley for the potential for multiple long-lived
significant supercells. However, confidence in the exact storm mode
and location of maximum threat remains unclear given some potential
for morning convection and model timing variance.

...ArkLaTX...
Displaced south of the primary wave, forcing for ascent is somewhat
weaker than farther north. Isolated to scattered convection is
expected along the advancing Pacific front/surface trough from mid
to late afternoon from northeast TX, into northern LA and southern
AR. Upper 60s F dewpoints and elongated hodographs suggest
supercells with all hazards will be possible as they spread east
into the lower MS valley overnight.

Later in the evening, a second round of convection may evolve near
the Red River as low-level warm advection increases. The Pacific
front should gradually lift north as a warm front, allowing some
elevated thunderstorms to develop across southern OK and north TX.
Moderate buoyancy and continued strong flow aloft would likely
support a risk for hail.

..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon across the
central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to
spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe
gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest...
A somewhat complicated convective evolution is expected across parts
of the central and Southern Plains late Tuesday. A powerful
mid-level trough and accompanying 100+ kt jet streak are forecast to
eject eastward over the central Rockies into the Plains late in the
afternoon and into overnight Tuesday. Strong ascent will aid in the
development and intensification of a deep lee low helping to rapidly
draw substantial surface moisture northward late. Southerly winds
will act on a sizable reservoir of rich moisture with mean W of
14-16 g/kg across south Texas and the western Gulf Basin. Higher
surface dewpoints are forecast to rapidly return northward across
much of the southern and central Plains. While model disagreement in
regard to the speed of moisture return persists, an ensemble
solution of guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are
likely across the central Plains, with mid 60s F possible across the
southern Plains by 00z.

Cooling mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough will aid
in destabilization ahead of a surging dryline, supporting initial
convective development close to the low across pats of NE and
northern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs
suggest the primary risk will be hail, some damaging winds are also
possible given the relatively dry profile.  Additional, likely
elevated storms are expected later in the evening as low-level warm
air advection increases and spreads into parts of the Midwest. Hail
is the primary threat overnight.

Farther south into KS, OK and western/central TX, a more conditional
risk for supercell development is expected late afternoon to near
sunset. Models vary greatly in the degree of mixing and heating near
a sharpening dryline from south-central KS, into western OK, and
central TX. Forecast soundings show some residual cloud cover and
capping may remain east of the boundary through the late afternoon
associated with the rapid return of moisture. However, some
broad-scale ascent, strong isolation and solenoidal circulations may
allow for isolated storm development initially within the more mixed
air mass farther west. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and
strong deep-layer shear would support isolated supercells with a
risk for large hail and damaging gusts.

Should storms form, they will track east-northeast into the more
sheltered air mass Tuesday evening. As moisture continues to
improve, very strong low-level shear profiles are expected to
develop with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet. All hazards,
including a few tornadoes, significant hail and damaging gusts are
possible given increasingly large hodographs (0-1km SRH of 300-500
m2/s2) Tuesday night.

Additional storm development will be possible along the cold front
late Tuesday night which will spread eastward across the Plains and
potentially approach the Ozarks overnight. Questions remain
regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain
surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could
persist to the end of the period.

..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL PNHDL...MUCH OF
GA...SC...AND CNTRL NC...

...SUMMARY...
One or two organized thunderstorm clusters may overspread much of
the Southeast today, accompanied by swaths of strong to severe wind
gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.

...Discussion...
After a period of deepening across southern Ontario into Quebec,
models indicate that a modest surface cyclone will migrate across
the St. Lawrence Valley into the Canadian Maritimes during this
period, in advance of a significant mid-level trough gradually
turning east of northwestern Ontario.  As this occurs, a lower
amplitude mid-level perturbation of mid-latitude Pacific origins is
forecast to accelerate east of the south central Great Plains
through the Mid South, southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic coast
vicinity by late tonight.

Upstream, a seasonably strong mid/upper jet is forecast to continue
digging inland of the California coast through the southern Rockies,
as flow undergoes amplification across the southern mid- and
subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific.  It appears that this
will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado
Rockies by late tonight.  However, through daybreak Tuesday,
appreciable low-level moisture return may be confined to a narrow
plume west of the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the Texas
South Plains, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air, in the wake of
a stalling cold front near or just inland of the Gulf into southern
Mid Atlantic coasts.

Prior to this frontal passage, mid 60s to near 70F surface dew
points may linger across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley at
the outset of the period, while advecting east-northeastward across
parts of the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states, beneath
the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from
the Great Plains.

...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coast states...
Associated with the low amplitude short wave emerging from the south
central Great Plains, there remains a considerable signal, within
model output, that forcing for ascent within the moderately unstable
(including 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPE) pre-frontal environment will be
sufficient to contribute to the evolution of an organized cluster of
convection across Mississippi and Louisiana by 12Z this morning.  It
appears that destabilization ahead of this activity will be
sufficient to maintain or support renewed intensification across
Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of Florida, into the
Carolinas, by late afternoon or early this evening.  Aided by
ambient flow associated with a progressive 30-50+ kt jet in the
850-500 mb layer, at least some convection-allowing guidance and
other model output is suggestive that convectively augmented
rear-inflow may support one or more swaths of damaging wind gusts.

...Northern Mid Atlantic...
Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast
of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian
cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support
a risk for severe convection.  It appears that low-level moistening 
and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of
weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the
pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon.  This may
provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development,
particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front
by this evening.  Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing
a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before
locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential
severe hazard as convection increases in coverage.

..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/31/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH
OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA...

...SUMMARY...
An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue
to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and
Cumberland Plateaus.  Intensifying thunderstorm development is still
expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening,
which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind
gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak.

...01z Update...
As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle
Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant
short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale
downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence
Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may
finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across
southern Ontario into Quebec overnight.  In its wake, a trailing
cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio
Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and
southern Great Plains.

In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air
continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability
beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across
southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and
northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing
pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf
moisture return.

...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes...
The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is
embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly
deep-layer mean flow.  This will likely continue to pose a risk for
damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before
more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this
evening.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast...
Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in
convective development is likely later this evening into the
overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low
amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern
Rockies.  Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level
inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective
growth appears possible.  This may initially pose a risk for severe
hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the
evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by
increasing risk for strong gusts overnight.

..Kerr.. 03/31/2025