Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a
broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of
widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail
and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of
these tornadoes could be strong.

...20z Update...
Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of
the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry
line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is
expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed
an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern
Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into
portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN.
Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail
with any stronger discrete supercells. 

Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and
Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A
line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana
and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured
severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging
wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan
through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind
is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated
in recent WoFS runs. 

See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/30/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level
shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an
upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the
base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S.  Surface
analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing
cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into
eastern OK and north TX.  This front will push east through the OH
Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and
focus thunderstorm development.  

...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes...
Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east
of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt
southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture
into the region.  Additional thinning cloud cover and heating
through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms
developing and intensifying.  A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will
overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer
shear for organized convection.

The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear
modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large
hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear.  Meridional
upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition
to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where
hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular
(discrete and clusters) storm modes.  The tornado risk will be
greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong
tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat
will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the
afternoon/evening.  As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of
numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear
likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over
the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds
and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours,
until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and
eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central
Appalachians.

...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi
Valley/Mid-South and Southeast...
Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and
northeastward into the Mid South.  Rich low-level moisture (mid to
upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across
TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast
ahead of the cold front.  Model guidance continues to indicate rapid
and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts
of north/east TX northeastward into AR.  Supercells are expected
initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust
updraft organization and rotation.  A favorable setup exists for
large to very large hail with the stronger supercells.  

It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus
over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the
southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards
evening.  Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong
buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F
dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to
westerly by early evening.  It is during the 22-04 UTC period in
which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more
favorable for discrete supercells.  The strong tornado risk may
maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into
western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening.  Additional severe
storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex
moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states
during the late afternoon into tonight.  In addition to large to
very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely
accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall
coverage and intensity during the late night.

...Florida Peninsula...
A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this
afternoon.  Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile
with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer
shear for strong to severe multicells.  The stronger diurnally
driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon
across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat
expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail,
severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Synopsis...
The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the
central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially
significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday
evening and early Wednesday morning.

...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest...
A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great
Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet
will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a
intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains
during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level
moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will
advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with
a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be
in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though
lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline
development. 

At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early
evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of
the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a
risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells
that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic,
as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase.

Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional
storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward
across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions
remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can
remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards
could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms
may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of
large hail and locally damaging gusts.

..Dean.. 03/30/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to
widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast
Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central
Gulf Coast region.

...Synopsis...
The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by
extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one
significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the
lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a
lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the
Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep
surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing
cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England
into parts of the Southeast. 

...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia...
While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution
on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized
storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL,
potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the
southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream
buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain
potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of
GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to
widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to
support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and
also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat,
any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. 

The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold
front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the
wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the
severe potential with any second round of convection in this region.

Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a
moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early
afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward,
with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of
damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in
low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which
could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm
initiation and maturation. 

...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast...
While instability will generally weaken with northward extent,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the
front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England.
Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern
periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for
damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest
storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front
moves offshore.

..Dean.. 03/30/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a
broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of
widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail
and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of
these tornadoes could be strong.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level
shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an
upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the
base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S.  Surface
analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing
cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into
eastern OK and north TX.  This front will push east through the OH
Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and
focus thunderstorm development.  

...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes...
Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east
of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt
southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture
into the region.  Additional thinning cloud cover and heating
through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms
developing and intensifying.  A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will
overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer
shear for organized convection.

The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear
modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large
hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear.  Meridional
upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition
to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where
hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular
(discrete and clusters) storm modes.  The tornado risk will be
greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong
tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat
will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the
afternoon/evening.  As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of
numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear
likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over
the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds
and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours,
until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and
eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central
Appalachians.

...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi
Valley/Mid-South and Southeast...
Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and
northeastward into the Mid South.  Rich low-level moisture (mid to
upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across
TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast
ahead of the cold front.  Model guidance continues to indicate rapid
and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts
of north/east TX northeastward into AR.  Supercells are expected
initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust
updraft organization and rotation.  A favorable setup exists for
large to very large hail with the stronger supercells.  

It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus
over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the
southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards
evening.  Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong
buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F
dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to
westerly by early evening.  It is during the 22-04 UTC period in
which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more
favorable for discrete supercells.  The strong tornado risk may
maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into
western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening.  Additional severe
storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex
moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states
during the late afternoon into tonight.  In addition to large to
very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely
accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall
coverage and intensity during the late night.

...Florida Peninsula...
A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this
afternoon.  Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile
with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer
shear for strong to severe multicells.  The stronger diurnally
driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds.

..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED...

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall
evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday
April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases.

Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high
confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of
severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and
the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower
Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and
Oklahoma.  Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in
the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin
southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas.  As an upper low shifts
northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper
Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses
Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a
moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread
convective development.  

With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale
ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into
Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to
more linear development.  This, combined with flow that is forecast
to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a
primarily supercell storm mode.  In additional to very large hail
(particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and
several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant.  Risk is
expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight,
shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower
Mississippi Valley through the end of the period.

Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become
aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid
Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper
system shifts quickly across eastern Canada.  While weak short-wave
ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the
departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer
along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will
support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening
hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk.

Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but
short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across
the West.  As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the
cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm
advection/isentropic ascent.  While some severe risk will likely
evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the
ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area.  

By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to
uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West.  As such, no
risk areas will be included.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop after dark from central
and northeastern Kansas east-northeastward to northwestern Illinois,
where large hail would be the main severe risk.

...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valley, southward into Texas...
Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to amplify over the western U.S.
Tuesday, as several short-wave features rotate through the flow.  A
prominent/initial wave is forecast to shift into the
central/northern Plains overnight, evolving into a closed low over
the South Dakota/Nebraska area.  In response, a surface low over the
central High Plains early in the day is forecast to deepen/shift
northeastward into the Mid Missouri Valley area overnight.  A
trailing cold front will shift across the central and southern
Plains through the second half of the period.

Diurnal convection ahead of the advancing upper system, and
attendant cold front, should remain largely suppressed through the
day by stout capping.  A dryline storm or two cannot be ruled out, 
and very limited/conditional potential for hail or a damaging gust 
may exist across southern Oklahoma south into central Texas.

Greater risk will evolve overnight, mainly with elevated storms near
and north of a warm front lifting across Kansas/Missouri.  Large
hail would be the primary risk in this area, with shear favoring
supercells.  While the NAM hinders convection south of Kansas
through the period (due to maintenance of a capping inversion), both
the GFS and ECMWF suggest that isolated storms may initiate along
the cold front.  While only MRGL risk will be included at this time,
due to the conditional risk for surface-based/all-hazards risk
should storms develop along the front, this will need to be
reassessed in later outlooks with possible SLGT risk upgrade.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread
damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of
the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region.

...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and
eastern Gulf Coast area...
An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the
eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states
overnight.  Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the
Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to
progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the
day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore
overnight.

Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by
ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf
Coast region.  Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing
front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the
mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to
evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity.  This
will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as
it advances eastward.

Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of
the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms.  Northern
portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will
likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe
risk.  Farther south, greater instability will support stronger
convection, including linear bands near the front with
local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the
boundary.  As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied
by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given
ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer.  

Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving
offshore overnight.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SERN IL...IN...WRN AND CENTRAL
OH...SERN MO...CNTRL AND ERN AR...KY...TN...NWRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL
MS...NRN LA...NERN TX...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development is likely to become widespread across the
Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee and lower
Mississippi Valleys this afternoon into tonight.  Initially, this
activity will pose a risk for large large hail.  A few tornadoes are
also possible, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent
potential severe hazard this evening into tonight.

...Discussion...
To the north of an intense, zonal jet across the southern
mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a significant mid-level low is
forecast to progress slowly eastward across the northeastern
Pacific, toward the Pacific Northwest coast, accompanied by a deep
occluded surface cyclone.  This has been preceded inland by a series
of less prominent perturbations, a couple of which may be
consolidating into more notable larger-scale mid-level troughing to
the east-northeast of the southern Rockies.

Models continue to indicate that this evolving mid-level wave will
accelerate into a broadly confluent regime across the Ohio Valley
through lower Great Lakes region, between a significant short wave
trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and downstream ridging
overspreading the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast.  Models suggest
that an associated surface low, likely initially over eastern Iowa
at the outset of the period, will continue an east-northeastward
migration into and across the Great Lakes, but it may not undergo
substantive further deepening until late this afternoon into tonight
across the lower Great Lakes into southeastern Ontario/southwestern
Quebec.

Trailing this cyclone, a notable cold front is forecast to progress
southeastward through the southern Great Plains, and eastward
through the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and middle Ohio Valley by
late tonight.  The front will continue to be preceded by a
moistening southerly return flow, which may include surface dew
points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F as far north as
southern portions of the Great Lakes region, at least initially
beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from
the high plains.

...Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains...
Models suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of
sizable conditional and convective instability, with a fairly broad
reservoir of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg evolving across the
southeastern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as far
north as the confluence with the Ohio River by late this afternoon. 
Farther north, mixed-layer CAPE is likely to increase in excess of
1000 J/kg during the day, within a narrower corridor
across/north-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley, where
mid/upper forcing for ascent is likely to initiate intensifying
thunderstorm activity by early to mid afternoon.  This may include a
few supercells posing a risk for large hail and potential for a
couple of tornadoes, before convection tends to gradually
consolidate and grow upscale, accompanied by increasing risk for
damaging wind gusts.

This initial activity may be maintained northeastward and eastward
through much of the Ohio Valley by late this evening, before tending
to weaken while acquiring less unstable inflow.  Meanwhile,
subsequent initiation of storms is likely southwestward ahead of the
cold front, across the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward the
Ark-La-Tex later this afternoon into this evening.  It appears
possible that this may coincide with strengthening
lower/mid-tropospheric flow accompanying a trailing jet streak.  And
a period of intensifying discrete supercell development might not be
out of the question, before activity tends to grow upscale into one
or more organizing clusters.  Depending on how quickly this occurs,
there may be a conditional risk for a couple of strong tornadoes,
before damaging straight line winds, and perhaps brief tornadoes
with evolving near-surface meso vortices, becomes the more prominent
hazard southeastward into the Gulf Coast states overnight.

...Florida Peninsula vicinity...
HREF and NCEP SREF guidance indicates rather high probabilities for
thunderstorm development, as weak mid-level troughing overspreads
the peninsula today.  Beneath modestly cool mid-level temperatures,
it appears that boundary-layer moisture will support moderate CAPE,
and thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to a few stronger
storms with small, melting hail contributing to potential for
localized damaging downbursts.

..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/30/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern
Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward
the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity
overnight.

...01Z Update...
A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central
Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across
eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma.  This is occurring to the
southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not
undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern
Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output.

Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten
beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the
high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the
order of 1000-2000+ J/kg.

Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough
is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and
is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower
Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. 
Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front
across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and,
as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a
further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening
into the overnight hours.  

Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level
jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears
to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing
convective system.  This still appears most probable across parts of
north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri,
and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind
gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward
advancing cold front.

..Kerr.. 03/30/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this
evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized
thunderstorm cluster across parts of Oklahoma into southeastern
Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk across portions of southeast Texas was to remove,
as thunderstorm activity has moved eastward. A Marginal Risk was
introduced across the Florida Keys. Otherwise, no changes were made
to the Slight Risk areas across the southern/central Plains. See
previous discussion for more information.

...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
As thunderstorm activity progresses eastward through time this
evening, a corridor of greater damaging wind risk may develop. CAM
solutions continue to indicate upscale growth across portions of
northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas and western Missouri. Should
this line be able to organize and establish a strong cold pool, the
potential exists for a swath of damaging wind and perhaps some
significant winds given the steep mid-level lapse. Limiting factors
include the displacement of the stronger low-level jet winds to the
south and lagging of stronger mid-level flow across the Red River
into central Oklahoma. In addition, CAM guidance is split on a more
organized bowing line or a somewhat broken line of mixed mode
thunderstorms. Even so, a couple of gusts 70-80 mph could not be
ruled out. 

...Florida Keys...
Recent radar imagery has shown a couple of supercells with
strengthening rotation moving northwestward near the lower Florida
Keys. The environment in this region is characterized by rich
moisture and storm relative helicity around 100-150 m2/s2. This will
support a risk for a tornado with inclusion of a Marginal Risk with
this update.

..Thornton/Smith.. 03/29/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/

...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving northeastward
across the central Great Plains towards the Upper Midwest, while an
upstream disturbance moves from eastern AZ into the southern Great
Plains tonight.  The primary surface low over western KS this
morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern
IA/northern MO by tonight.  An attendant cold front will sweep
southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the
period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains
this afternoon.

Surface analysis shows lower 60s dewpoints streaming northward on
southerly low-level flow this morning from north TX to the KS/OK
border.  A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective
development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the
cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location
for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the
trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. 

Moderate to strong buoyancy will likely be present across
western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse
rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints.  Forecast
soundings favor supercell development with activity that develops
south of the front across west-central OK.  Large to very large hail
(potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) may accompany these
storms early in their convective life cycle.  Despite increasing
CINH during the evening, lower 60s dewpoints in place with 500-mb
temperatures around -15 deg C may aid the development of a tornado
risk from central into northeast OK as storms mature and eventually
grow upscale.  Severe gusts will probably become more prevalent with
time as this cluster moves east-northeast into parts of northeast OK
and eventually into MO later tonight, perhaps with the wind threat
slowly diminishing late.  

Farther south, a conditional severe threat exists south of the Red
River from north TX southwestward into parts of the Concho Valley. 
It appears the airmass will remain capped during the day in the
vicinity of the dryline, with storm development likely delayed until
late evening into the overnight per recent model guidance.  Very
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear magnitudes (50
kt effective shear), and 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will support a severe
risk with any sustained storms.  Models vary between very isolated
coverage and scattered storm coverage, especially over parts of
central into north TX.  Given consistency in some model guidance
(e.g., HRRR model run to run, GFS, ECMWF) showing some convective
signal, have opted to increase hail probabilities to level-2 Slight
Risk overnight.  Large to very large hail is possible with the
stronger storms (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter).

...Louisiana/Mississippi...
A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward this afternoon
across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South.  Although deep-layer shear
is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should
be present to support some updraft organization and transient
rotation with the stronger storms.  Cells moving
northeastward and inland over the central Gulf Coast may pose a
threat for a brief tornado, as well as a localized risk for damaging
gusts.