Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected for the remainder of the period.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorm activity over parts of the CONUS will continue to
dwindle through tonight due to loss of heating and weak lift.

Scattered storms persist over parts of VA and eastern NC, within a
weak surface trough. Much of the unstable air has been overturned
from earlier storms, and the gradually cooling boundary layer should
preclude any severe chances here.

Scattered storms also persist over parts of FL this evening, and a
general decrease is expected here as well.

To the west, isolated thunderstorms may continue for a couple hours
over northeast NM and into the far western OK/TX Panhandles within a
weak instability plume and near a cold front.

..Jewell.. 10/01/2024

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 302000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect
central/eastern North Carolina through early evening.

...20z Update...

The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms
possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No
changes are needed with the 20z update.

..Leitman.. 09/30/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

...NC...
Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a
weak boundary extending across eastern NC.  Strong heating will
occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where
dewpoints are in the mid 70s.  Despite the high/increasing low level
theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates
but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.  Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings
show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient
southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization.  This
suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA,
albeit a little more favorable.  A few rotating storms are possible,
with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind
gusts with the more organized cells.  Therefore have added a narrow
MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the
central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A
low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the
Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In
combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm
threat appears negligible.

Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough
will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night.
Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon.

Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough
will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold
front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching
Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s,
meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But
warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially
with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will
remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the
bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe
storms are not anticipated. 

Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ
may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon.

..Grams.. 09/30/2024

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect
central/eastern North Carolina this afternoon.

...NC...
Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a
weak boundary extending across eastern NC.  Strong heating will
occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where
dewpoints are in the mid 70s.  Despite the high/increasing low level
theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates
but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.  Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings
show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient
southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization.  This
suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA,
albeit a little more favorable.  A few rotating storms are possible,
with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind
gusts with the more organized cells.  Therefore have added a narrow
MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary.

..Hart/Weinman.. 09/30/2024

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, though a few strong
storms may affect central/eastern North Carolina.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
The main belt of mid/upper-level, midlatitude westerlies will
continue to traverse the northwestern/north-central CONUS and
central/southwestern Canada, buckled cyclonically around a prominent
synoptic trough now located from eastern SK to central MT and
western WY.  This trough should phase with another now over central
mainland Arctic Canada by the end of the period, resulting in a
500-mb low over southeastern Nunavut, with trough trailing over
western Hudson Bay, northwesternmost ON, MN, and IA.  

Strongly difluent flow aloft will take shape southeast of the
trough, across the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes from
Michigan/Huron on down, the Ohio Valley, and much of the
Appalachians.  As that occurs, a longstanding, filling, weakening
low now over southwestern WV will devolve today to an open-wave
trough, losing amplitude rapidly and drifting eastward over the
central Appalachians through the period.  Part of a basal shortwave
trough/vorticity lobe -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery
over eastern TN -- will eject eastward across northern NC and
southern VA from this afternoon through tonight.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary front across
northern SC to just south of the southern Outer Banks, extending
from a triple-point low near CAE.  This boundary should shift
northward over central/eastern NC through the day.  Meanwhile, a
cold front -- related to the strong northern-stream trough -- was
drawn from central/southern MB across southern ND, central SD,
northwestern NE, and southern WY.  This front should sweep across
most of the Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley through the
period, reaching northern Lower MI, IL, southwestern MO, southern
OK, and the TX South Plains by 12Z. 

...Central/eastern NC...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon over the Piedmont and coastal plain, in an
environment characterized by rich boundary-layer moisture (surface
dewpoints commonly in upper 60 to mid 70s F) very weak ambient
MLCINH easily removed by diurnal heating, but weak mid/upper-level
lapse rates.  This will result in 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE over most of
the area from he Piedmont to the Sounds, beneath a belt of
sufficiently strong mid/upper flow to yield around 35-45-kt
effective-shear magnitudes.  

Low-level hodographs over central/eastern NC this afternoon, from 
model forecast soundings, reasonably show curvature near the frontal
zone, but with weak speeds in the lowest couple km that
substantially limit SRH and vector shear.  However, above 1 km,
hodographs are somewhat long and straight, suggesting the potential
for low-end supercells amidst the mode common multicellular modes. 
At this time, forecast shear appears too weak to support an
unconditional tornado-threat area, but the scenario will be
monitored for any mesoscale enhancement to shear (especially along
boundaries) that may introduce such a risk.  The gust threat appears
subsevere at this time, though localized gusts approaching severe
limits cannot be ruled out.

..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/30/2024

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Potential for severe weather continues to appear limited on Thursday
and Friday as upper-level flow will remain primarily zonal across
the CONUS along with a surface pattern that will not promote
northward advection of moisture. By the weekend, the predictability
of the upper-level pattern begins to decrease quickly. Both the GFS
and ECMWF show flow trying to amplify in the northern half of the
CONUS. However, the wave pattern between the two models is out of
phase. The ECMWF would suggest at least some low potential for
severe weather, given a greater southward advancement of an upper
trough this weekend into early next week. Even if this evolution is
to verify, this severe potential would be conditional on the
magnitude and quality of moisture return after another front moves
into the Gulf Coast region late next week.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to develop by Wednesday
morning across the CONUS. The jet stream will be positioned along
the Canadian border. Stable conditions in the northern tier of
states should generally preclude thunderstorm development with any
embedded shortwave troughs. Farther south, upper-level ridging will
also minimize thunderstorm potential. Two exceptions are within the
Florida Peninsula where the sea breeze will provide sufficient lift
for storms during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also
possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where mid-level
moisture still remains.

..Wendt.. 09/30/2024

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A weakening shortwave trough will progress east over the Lower
Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over eastern North Carolina to far
southeast Virginia during the afternoon before the trough departs.

A strong upper-level trough will move across parts of the northern
Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this trough will
similarly move eastward, progressing into the lower Ohio Valley and
the lower Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. With
surface dewpoints in the low 60s, marginal surface-based buoyancy of
500-750 J/kg MLCAPE could develop ahead of the front. Warm 700 mb
temperatures and weak low-level winds suggest severe storms are
unlikely.

Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in the
Florida Peninsula where sea breeze boundaries are likely to initiate
storms in a moist environment. Mid-level moisture near the Mogollon
Rim into parts of southern Arizona may promote isolated thunderstorm
development during the afternoon.

..Wendt.. 09/30/2024

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An intense upper trough will move quickly from MT across the
northern Plains and upper MS Valley through 00Z, and to the upper
Great Lakes into Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a cold front
will push east in concert with the upper trough, extending from Lake
MI into western TX by 12Z Tuesday. Due to lack of moisture and
instability ahead of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast with
this system.

To the east, a positive-tilt upper trough will remain over parts of
the Appalachians, with 40-45 kt 500 mb southwesterlies from GA into
the Carolinas. A weak surface low is forecast over the central
Carolinas, and sufficient convergence may exist to support scattered
daytime thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear on the order of 40 kt will
exist, with elongated hodographs in the mid and high levels.
However, poor lapse rates aloft should limit any potential to mainly
non-severe outflow/gusts.

Elsewhere, mid 70s F dewpoints within a weak flow regime will again
favor scattered daytime storms over the FL Peninsula. Midlevel lapse
rates will remain poor, limiting storm intensity despite ample
moisture.

Finally, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur over parts of AZ and
NM during the peak heating hours. While under a midlevel ridge, 500
mb temperatures will still be cool at around -10 C, aiding lapse
rates.

..Jewell/Bentley.. 09/30/2024

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for the remainder of the
period.

...Discussion...
Scattered low-topped convection remains ongoing from WV into VA and
central NC, where weak instability exists. This activity will
continue to diminish with the loss of heating.

To the south, stronger storms exist over the east-central FL
Peninsula near Cape Canaveral. However, this activity is mostly
producing heavy rain and lightning in a weak-shear environment, and
will continue to spread offshore. Additional isolated activity
cannot be ruled out a bit farther south and within the instability
axis.

Elsewhere, high-based convection from northern AZ across UT will
gradually weaken as well with the loss of heating and as the
influence of the upper trough to the north lessens.

..Jewell.. 09/30/2024