Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail,
numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today
into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern
Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and
vicinity. A strong tornado or two is possible across
south-central/southeastern Kansas into central Oklahoma.

...20z Update...
The Enhanced Risk was expanded further southward through the
Oklahoma City metro with this update. The Slight Risk was also
expanded further west and southward. Recent trends in satellite and
radar have shown cell development further south and west along the
dryline than previously forecast. The environment across central
Oklahoma is favorable for maintenance of supercells, with daytime
heating yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and shear around 40 kts
progged to increase with the increasing low level jet this
afternoon/evening. Boundary parallel shear and overtaking of the
dryline by the cold front will lead to a transition to more linear
structure around sunset. However, deep layer shear profiles will
continue to support embedded supercell structures after dark with
the potential for tornadoes, some strong, to continue through the
evening. Large hail will also be a concern late afternoon/early
evening while discrete mode is maintained.

Tornado probabilities were adjusted across northeastern Kansas to
account for progression of the cold front and earlier convective
activity. See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/30/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/

...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley...
The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and
Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today.
A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a
cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A
dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across
western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling.
Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the
southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and
dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this
morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding
the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central
Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of
the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose
some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening
mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later
this afternoon across northeast KS.

Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm
sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late
afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally
stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current
expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by
20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in
close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection.
Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie
this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced
south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer
shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated
threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may
occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained
supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability
with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear.

With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater
threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This
severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line
spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more
isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley.
The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and
evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH
strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained
supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains
somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat
for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable
low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies
within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and
observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded
westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the
expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been
expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to
numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening.

Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later
across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells
may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the
initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with
southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can
develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a
couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually
occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes
will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat
increases as the convective mode becomes more linear.

...Southeast Texas...
There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating
thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a
very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as
low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate
degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength
winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity
for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating
characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to
remain limited.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected
to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region.

...Synopsis...
Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central
U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side
of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the
eastern Pacific toward California.  This will result in
amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response,
increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states.  

At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold
front expected to move eastward across New England through the day,
while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast
States, and into the southern Plains.

Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across
the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in
response to the digging upper system.

...Southern High Plains...
Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight
across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level
warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic
zone.  Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE,
while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient
cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts.  This suggests
potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these
potentially stronger storms.

..Goss.. 10/30/2024

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally
severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon,
from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana.

...Synopsis...
A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle
Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward
toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the
period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight.  At the surface, an
associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains.  By the end of the
period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas
Coast.

...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern
Louisiana...
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an
advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the
southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas.  With
the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly
northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing
ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly
the Ohio Valley southward.  Meanwhile, weak instability north of the
Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more
favorable kinematics.

Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to
cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to
produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. 
Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours,
after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe
potential is expected.

..Goss.. 10/30/2024

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail,
numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today
into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern
Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and
vicinity.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley...
The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and
Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today.
A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a
cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A
dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across
western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling.
Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the
southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and
dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this
morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding
the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central
Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of
the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose
some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening
mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later
this afternoon across northeast KS.

Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm
sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late
afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally
stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current
expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by
20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in
close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection.
Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie
this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced
south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer
shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated
threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may
occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained
supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability
with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear.

With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater
threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This
severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line
spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more
isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley.
The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and
evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH
strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained
supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains
somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat
for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable
low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies
within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and
observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded
westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the
expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been
expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to
numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening.

Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later
across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells
may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the
initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with
southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can
develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a
couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually
occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes
will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat
increases as the convective mode becomes more linear.

...Southeast Texas...
There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating
thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a
very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as
low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate
degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength
winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity
for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating
characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to
remain limited.

..Gleason/Moore.. 10/30/2024

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS
EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind
gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected today into tonight across
the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including
parts of eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into Missouri.

...Lower Missouri Valley/South-Central Plains...
A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally,
especially late this afternoon into evening, including some southern
Plains areas in which there hasn't been severe-weather potential in
over a month.

The lead portion of an upper-level trough centered over the
central/southern Rockies this morning will eject northeastward over
the central Plains toward broader parts of the Upper Midwest and
Corn Belt. A surface wave will evolve across the eastern Texas
Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma vicinity. From this low, an
east/southeastward-moving cold front will extend across Kansas into
Iowa/Minnesota and eventually Wisconsin/western Missouri by this
evening, with this front overtaking a dryline across the southern
High Plains.

Some severe-weather potential may increase as early as late morning
into midday near the cold front across central Kansas into southeast
Nebraska and Iowa, with a likely increase in surface-rooted
convection and greater severe potential by mid/late afternoon as the
front approaches east-central/northeast Kansas and northwest
Missouri/southern Iowa. Pre-convective MLCAPE values should reach
500-1250 J/kg within this corridor, with very strong deep-layer
southwesterly winds supporting 40-50 kt effective shear and fast
east-northeastward storm motions, which will largely parallel the
front and its east-southeastward motion. Some severe hail will be
possible during the day, but damaging winds and some tornado
potential will be more prevalent into late afternoon and evening as
a QLCS evolves with embedded bowing segments and potential
mesovortices. 

Farther south, in closer proximity to the surface wave, somewhat
more discrete thunderstorm development is expected across
south-central/east-central Kansas including the I-35/135 corridors
and north-central Oklahoma, with prospects for even more isolated
initial supercellular development by around sunset southward into
central/southern Oklahoma and North Texas. Surface temperatures in
the upper 70s F, combined with mid 60s F dewpoints, will contribute
to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Storms that develop/mature
in this environment will likely be supercells in the presence of 45+
effective shear, highlighted by a dramatic strengthening (50-65 kt)
of 2-3 km AGL (surface-700 mb) southwesterly winds toward/after
sunset. Storm mergers will result in squall line development over
time, with a longer duration of more discrete development with
southward extent across Oklahoma. A few tornadoes are plausible
regionally, and a strong tornado or two could occur, particularly
within a couple of hours of sunset. The severe threat should
transition to more of a damaging wind threat as the squall line
matures, although line-embedded QLCS tornadoes will remain possible
this evening, and possibly overnight.

...Southeast Texas...
There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating
storms could materialize today across the region within a very moist
and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level
lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of
low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds
above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any
showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and
the overall severe potential should remain limited.

..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/30/2024

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest
on Saturday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the
Rockies and Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in place over much
of the southern and central Plains. Along the western edge of the
moist airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop from
eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Thunderstorms that develop along
and near this instability axis will have a chance to be severe.
Supercells could produce large hail and isolated severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, low-level moisture advection is expected to continue over
much of the Great Plains, as the upper-level trough moves across the
Desert Southwest. Model forecasts are in reasonably good agreement,
with an axis of moderate instability developing Sunday afternoon
from northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma northward
into Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse
rates should support supercell development, with a potential for
isolated large hail and wind damage. The threat should persist into
the evening as scattered severe storms move eastward across the
southern and central Plains.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the
southern High Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet ejects
northeastward into the southern and central Plains. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop along a corridor of weak instability from
central and north Texas northeastward into the Ozarks. Moderate
deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe
threat during the afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts
and isolated large hail as the primary threats. At this time, the
timing of the ejecting mid-level jet, and magnitude of instability
remain too uncertain to issue a threat area.

...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8...
The upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward
into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains
southwesterly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form Tuesday afternoon
ahead of a cold front from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley
north-northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. On Wednesday, the
front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys, suggesting the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms
would be greatest from Kentucky southwestward into western Tennessee
and northern Mississippi. However, spatial and magnitude uncertainty
are substantial at this range.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail
and a few severe wind gusts, will be possible Friday night in parts
of the southern High Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the Rockies and
Great Plains on Friday, as a trough moves inland across the West
Coast. Moisture advection will take place over the southern and
central Plains, with surface dewpoints likely reaching the 60s F
across much of Texas. The strongest instability is forecast by mid
to late evening from far West Texas into eastern New Mexico, where
scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop. Additional
convection is expected further to the east across west-central
Texas. During the overnight period, thunderstorm coverage is
forecast to expand northeastward into parts of the Texas Panhandle
and northwest Texas. Forecast soundings from far West Texas into the
Texas Panhandle Friday evening and overnight have MLCAPE reaching
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the
30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 6.5 C/km.
This environment would be sufficient for supercells with large hail.
Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. The severe
threat could persist to late in the period.

..Broyles.. 10/30/2024

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected today into
early tonight, particularly from the middle Missouri Valley area
into the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and become
negatively tilted as it impinges on the Upper MS Valley today.
Surface lee-troughing will remain in place across the Plains,
resulting in the northward transport of an appreciably moist
low-level airmass. A surface low will develop along the KS/OK border
this afternoon and track toward the MS Valley this evening. A cold
front will be draped across the MS Valley into KS while a dryline,
extending from the low, is poised to sweep eastward across OK and
northern TX through the day. Deep-layer ascent along and ahead of
the cold front and dryline will support at least scattered
thunderstorm initiation by late afternoon across the Plains. These
storms will progress eastward amid a buoyant and highly sheared
airmass. Severe storms are likely ahead of the cold front and
dryline, with all hazards possible.

...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains...
Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate along the cold front
over northern KS into western IA by mid to late afternoon as
stronger upper-level support from the impinging mid-level trough
overspreads the terminus of a 50+ kt southerly low-level jet. 7+
C/km mid-level lapse rates, overspreading rich low-level moisture
(including mid-60s F surface dewpoints), should yield at least 1500
J/kg SBCAPE. Strong southwesterly 500 mb flow overspreading the
low-level jet will contribute to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear,
but with vectors aligned roughly parallel with the front. Initial
semi-discrete storm modes, capable of mainly severe wind/hail, will
quickly merge to form a QLCS with embedded bowing segments and
perhaps a few mesovortices. This initial band of storms should
approach the MS Valley region by sunset, accompanied by mainly
damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat.

Farther south into central KS/northern OK, more discrete
thunderstorm development is expected by early evening. Surface
temperatures in the upper 70s F, combined with mid to perhaps upper
60s F dewpoints, will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE just
before sunset. Storms that can mature in this environment may
benefit from over 50 kts of effective bulk shear, as well as an
increase in low-level shear upon approaching the western periphery
of the low-level jet. Forecast soundings depict overall curved
low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation and 250-350 m2/s2
effective SRH. As such, supercells should be the initial storm mode
before storm mergers result in squall line development. While many
forecast soundings depict a weakness in the 800-600 mb layer, the
overall strength of the low-level shear suggests at least a few
tornadoes are possible, and a strong tornado or two may occur,
mainly after dark. The severe threat may transition to more of a
damaging gust threat after the squall line forms, though
line-embedded QLCS tornadoes remain possible.

..Squitieri/Lyons.. 10/30/2024

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts, will be
possible Thursday afternoon along a narrow corridor from the Sabine
River Valley north-northeastward into far southern Lower Michigan.

...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio
Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
A negatively-tilted upper-level trough, and an associated 70 to 80
knot mid-level speed max, will move northeastward into the Great
Lakes on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will advance
eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of
the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to weak
destabilization in most areas by midday. Convection is expected to
initiate along and ahead the front during the late morning as
surface temperatures warm. Thunderstorms should gradually increase
in coverage in the afternoon, moving eastward across the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio Valley.

Model solutions appear to present two scenarios. The first solution,
which is depicted by the NAM, initiates convection near the front
around midday from east-central Texas north-northeastward into the
mid Mississippi Valley, with a second north-to-south band of storms
developing much further east in the lower Mississippi Valley. The
second solution, which is depicted by the ECMWF, focuses most of the
convection further east near the center of the low-level moisture
corridor in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Strong outflow from
the previous night's convection is forecast to surge southeastward
across much of central and east Texas Thursday morning, which could
favor the second scenario, with an effective frontal boundary much
further east.

The severe threat should be concentrated along and near the axis of
the strongest low-level flow, which is forecast to be in the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio Valley. Forecast soundings
near the moist axis in the afternoon have MLCAPE peaking from around
500 J/kg in the lower Ohio Valley to 1500 J/kg in the lower
Mississippi Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along much
of the moist axis, where low-level lapse rates could peak near 7
C/km in areas that heat up the most. This environment will likely
support an isolated wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with
the stronger and more organized multicells. A marginal tornado
threat may also develop, mainly from western Tennessee
south-southwestward into northern Louisiana, where the combination
of instability and shear is forecast to be maximized, in conjunction
with steep low-level lapse rates.

..Broyles.. 10/30/2024

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development may occur early Wednesday morning across
parts of the southern/central Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough over the Rockies will continue to
progress eastward toward the Plains tonight. In advance of the
mid-level trough, broad surface lee troughing is taking place across
the central U.S., where an intense (50-60kt) low-level jet is
expected to develop, leading to ample northward low-level
warm-air/moisture advection through the remainder of the period.
Given the gradual approach of favorable upper-level support,
thunderstorm initiation has become more questionable before 12Z.
Nonetheless, thunder probabilities have been maintained in the event
that thunderstorms can develop atop a moist boundary layer.
A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions
of the TX Gulf Coast given onshore advection of rich low-level
moisture.

..Squitieri.. 10/30/2024