Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
High-amplitude cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the eastern
2/3 of the U.S. tonight, while surface high pressure prevails east
of the Rockies -- reflective of a polar airmass.  Given the cold/dry
continental conditions, thunderstorms are largely not anticipated. 
The only exception may be in lee of the Great Lakes, where a
lightning flash cannot be ruled out in intense lake-effect snow
bands.  Still, threat remains too low for inclusion of a thunder
area.

..Goss.. 12/01/2024

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 302000Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20z Update...
No forecast changes are needed. Thunderstorm potential remains very
limited across the country. Occasional flashes have been noted
within a heavy snow band in the vicinity of Watertown, NY, but
coverage through 12z will remain too limited to warrant highlights.
See the previous discussion for additional details.

..Moore.. 11/30/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the eastern CONUS
today. With dry and/or stable conditions persisting over land,
thunderstorm potential is expected to remain very low through the
period. One possible exception will be with snow bands occurring in
western NY off Lakes Erie and Ontario. But, any lightning flashes
should remain quite sparse/isolated due to very limited instability.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south
Texas. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
An expansive mid/upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS will move
slowly eastward on Monday, while upstream midlevel height rises
reinforce surface high pressure from the northern Plains into the
Southeast. As a result, boundary-layer moisture will remain confined
to the Gulf of Mexico, limiting thunderstorm potential across much
of the CONUS. The one exception will be over south TX, where a weak
frontal wave interacting with sufficient boundary-layer moisture
will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning
potential. Any stronger storms should remain offshore, where
instability will be greater.

..Weinman.. 11/30/2024

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A broad large-scale trough will persist across the eastern half of
the CONUS, while an expansive continental polar air mass is
reinforced from the northern Plains into the Southeast. Accompanying
the large-scale trough, cold midlevel temperatures above the
relatively warmer Great Lakes will contribute to steep lapse rates
and weak instability. An isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled
out within the stronger lake-effect snow bands downwind of Lake
Ontario and possibly over Lake Huron, though coverage appears too
limited for General Thunderstorm highlights.

Farther south, ample boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of a
weak frontal-wave low off the Lower TX Coast will support isolated
thunderstorms during the overnight hours, though most of this
activity should remain offshore.

..Weinman.. 11/30/2024

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the eastern CONUS
today. With dry and/or stable conditions persisting over land,
thunderstorm potential is expected to remain very low through the
period. One possible exception will be with snow bands occurring in
western NY off Lakes Erie and Ontario. But, any lightning flashes
should remain quite sparse/isolated due to very limited instability.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/30/2024

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...
Longwave troughing will persist east of the Rockies, with prevalent
surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions. This will
contribute to a virtually nil thunderstorm potential across the
CONUS. An exception may the possibility of a few lightning flashes
in the immediate lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario, although this
potential should remain limited/sporadic overall.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/30/2024

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A series of upper-level troughs will move across the northern
Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. during the Day 4-8 time
frame. Farther west, an upper low initially near the West Coast will
move slowly east across the southwest states/northern Mexico.
Low-level moisture will gradually increase from east TX eastward
across the central Gulf Coast Tuesday/D4-Thursday/D6, however latest
GEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance reflects only weak instability
across this area and with large-scale lift remaining displaced well
to the north. Although some thunderstorm potential may ultimately
exist within this environment, the severe weather potential remains
low. Thereafter, very limited instability suggests continued low
severe potential through the remaining outlook period.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south
Texas. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper trough from eastern Canada south into the eastern
U.S. will move slowly east Monday, with broad cyclonic flow
persisting over most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Surface high
pressure will build south across much of the Plains, Mississippi
Valley and southeast, limiting the return of appreciable low-level
moisture and instability over all but portions of south Texas. 

Across deep south Texas, isolated thunderstorms will be possible
within a moistening boundary layer contributing to modest buoyancy
in the vicinity of a weak surface trough. Severe storms are not
expected.

..Bunting.. 11/30/2024

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A large upper-level low centered over Ontario/Quebec provinces will
persist through Sunday, with an expansive area of cyclonic flow
across much of the central and eastern CONUS and a ridge over the
western states. Surface high pressure from the Plains states into
southeast U.S. will reinforce generally dry/stable conditions. With
the exception of portions of deep South Texas, appreciable low-level
moisture/instability will remain offshore Sunday and Sunday night. 

A sporadic lightning strike will be possible in association with
lake-effect snow bands in the lee of Lakes Ontario and Erie, but
overall coverage should remain limited.

..Bunting.. 11/30/2024

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast for today.

...Synopsis...
Much of the CONUS will remain under the western periphery of a broad
mid-level trough, which will reinforce surface high pressure and
associated cool surface conditions. Static stability over the CONUS
will limit organized thunderstorm potential. A couple of lightning
flashes cannot be ruled out over portions of Lakes Erie, Ontario,
and immediate adjacent shorelines within lake effect snow bands.
However, the sparse coverage of flashes suggests that thunderstorm
highlights are unwarranted this outlook.

..Squitieri/Karstens.. 11/30/2024