SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts, hail and a brief tornado will be possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic including New Jersey and southern Long Island early this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic/New Jersey/Southern Long Island... The latest water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave trough moving northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachian Mountains. At the surface, a trough is located from Maryland extending southwestward into the western Carolinas, with a warm front analyzed from the Delmarva eastward into the western Atlantic. Near the warm front, the latest RAP has an axis of instability, with MLCAPE over land estimated to be in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The latest radar imagery shows the remnants of a bowing line segment near the coast of southern New Jersey. The HRRR suggests additional thunderstorms may develop northward along the coast of New Jersey to near southern Long Island over the next couple of hours, where instability is forecast to increase. For this reason, the threat for marginally severe gusts and hail is expected to continue. A brief tornado will also be possible if a bowing segment can become organized...reference MCD 2324. Further south across north-central North Carolina, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the surface trough ahead of an axis of weak instability. These storms are forecast to gradually weaken as they move eastward into northeastern North Carolina this evening. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2025Read more