Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... Late in the period, the approaching trough will promote moisture return within the Lower Mississippi Valley, Arkansas, and East Texas. Model guidance shows some hints at potential storm development, but coverage is far from certain due to some lingering capping from warmer air aloft. Should storms form, they most likely would be elevated. Coverage concerns preclude adding severe probabilities, but large hail is conditionally possible. ...Day 5/Saturday... A strong trough, which has trended more amplified in the ECMWF, is expected to impact the Sabine Valley into the Southeast starting in the afternoon. The latest model trends also have a more favorable placement of the surface low in the Tennessee Valley. These factors will drive strong moisture advection into the region by Saturday morning, continuing into Sunday. Intense wind fields throughout the column will support organized storms capable of all hazards. Damaging winds, particularly with linear convection along the strong cold front, currently appears as the main threat. The magnitude of the tornado threat will largely depend on discrete development ahead of the front. Given the moist environment with minimal inhibition and strong forcing, that scenario is certainly plausible. Discrete development or not, low-level wind fields still will support line-embedded circulations. Despite more limited buoyancy farther north, the strongly forced convective line and 60-70 kts of 850 mb flow would support damaging winds even in shallow convection. Uncertainties still remain along the fringes of the highlighted area (i.e., how far west will convection form, how unstable will it be to the north/east). Mid-level lapse rates will also not be overlay steep. Even so, the overall pattern continues to support the potential for scattered to numerous severe storms. ...Day 6/Sunday... As the strong trough and cold front continue east, the convective line will likely stretch from the eastern Florida Panhandle into the Piedmont early Sunday morning. Strong forcing and wind fields will still be in place. The primary uncertainty is the degree of destabilization that can occur ahead of the line given the arrival before the diurnal heating maximum. Where heating can occur, which may be near the coastline, some severe potential will exist. The intensity and coverage of these storms is enough in question that severe probabilities will be withheld. ...Day 7 Onward... Severe potential should be minimal on Monday given the expansive colder air and surface high pressure. Another shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains on Tuesday. While some moisture return is possible, this will occur after a fairly substantial cold air intrusion to the central Gulf. Uncertainty in an appreciable severe risk is high.Read more