SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Alabama. ...Synopsis... As the shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex moves northeastward through the day on Wednesday, moisture return from the Gulf will continue ahead of a cold front that will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Sabine Valley into far western Alabama... Precipitation, likely north of the surface boundary, will be ongoing Wednesday morning. This will have impact on both frontal position and the exact degree of destabilization that can occur later in the day. As the trough moves northeast, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move northward into much of Louisiana into central Mississippi and portions of Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible near the Gulf Coast. As a surface low develops near the ArkLaTex late in the morning, storm development in the warm sector is possible near the Sabine Valley. Storms are expected to be at least near surface based. Storm development along the front is likely to continue through the period given strong low-level warm advection. This activity may occasionally be strong to severe given the 50-60 kts of effective shear. However, front-parallel shear will lead to storm interactions and little surge in the line. The front will eventually move southeastward, but this will not occur until the evening and overnight periods. Buoyancy will decrease with northward and eastward extent, but stronger forcing from the shortwave may compensate. Moisture advection should keep inhibition minimal even into the evening. The strong low-level winds and enlarged hodographs would suggest some threat of damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. The linear forcing from the front should limit the tornado threat. Development of storms in the open warm sector does not appear probable given the warmer layers aloft and the arrival of mid-level cooling during th early/mid evening. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025Read more