Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The mid-level flow pattern will undergo significant amplification
over the next several days as a large western US trough begins to
move eastward. Very rich moisture will support widespread
thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southeast and eastern US
through the weekend.

...D4/Saturday Mid South...
The upper low over northern Mexico will continue to amplify as it
begins ejecting eastward across the lower and mid MS Valley. A
strong 100+ kt jet will move east of the trough and overspread a
relatively broad warm sector across the Sabine and MS Valleys into
parts of TN/KY. Unseasonably rich moisture from several days of
southerly flow will be in place ahead of a surface low and cold
front. One or more rounds of severe storms, including supercells,
appears likely from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS through the day.
All hazards will be possible. Storms should eventually grow upscale
into a line or cluster and spread eastward overnight into parts of
AL, FL, and GA.

The northern bound of the risk area across the TN Valley and into
the OH valley appears somewhat conditional. Multiple preceding days
of storms may limit the northern extent of the deeper moisture and
buoyancy. However, some severe risk likely exists given the
intensity of the low-level jet and abundance of moisture.

...Day 5...
The severe threat is likely to carry over from Day 4 in the form of
a squall line, as the upper wave gradually devolves into a broader
positive-tilt trough. Strong mid-level flow and ascent will persist
over a broadening warm sector across the Southeast. While lapse
rates appear weak from several days of convection, some severe risk
is possible. The intensity of the severe risk will be heavily
dependent on the convective evolution from the prior day 4 which is
very unclear at the moment. Will add a 15% area across parts of AL,
FL, GA and SC where the best overlap of mid-level flow and robust
moisture are expected to support potential for damaging gusts.

A severe risk may also develop across parts of the Carolinas and mid
Atlantic Day5/Sunday. As the upper wave lifts to the north, ascent
will overspread returning surface moisture as far north as southern
PA. It is unclear how much buoyancy will be present with the
potential for widespread clouds. However, strong flow fields will be
available to any convection that can develop.

...D6+...
Offshore flow and high pressure will begin to dominate the extended
period as mid-level ridging intensifies over the center of the
country. Much cooler and stable conditions behind the advancing cold
front appear likely to temporarily end broader potential for severe
storms through early next week.

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT WED APR 02 2025

...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and Lower
Ohio Valley later today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Western and Middle Tennessee
  Arkansas
  Western and Central Kentucky
  Eastern Missouri
  Illinois
  Northern Mississippi
  Indiana
  Northern Louisiana
  Western Ohio
  North into Northeast Texas
  Southern Lower Michigan

* HAZARDS...
  Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track
  Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force
  Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  A tornado outbreak is expected today and tonight from parts of
  the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio
  Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple long-track EF3+
  tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, severe wind
  gusts, and very large hail will be possible across a broad area
  from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY...AND INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY....

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the
Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the
lower OH Valley Friday and Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen
Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico.
Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern
Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and
eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside
along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH
Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible
within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large
buoyancy/shear.

...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex...
A band of elevated storms is likely to be ongoing at the start of
the period from central/northwestern TX into southern OK. Hail
appears likely with this activity as it meanders along and north of
the front. The risk for hail and damaging gusts should continue
eastward as storms shift eastward through the day. Reinforced by
this convection and increasing low-level cold advection, the front
should begin to move southward early in the period, assuming a more
north-south orientation. 

An elongated surface low should develop along the front backing
low-level winds through the day. A band of storms will form near the
front and spread east/northeast into the ArkLaTex into Friday
evening. Strong southerly flow aloft and a 40-50 kt low-level jet
may support a mixed convective mode with the potential for all
hazards.

....MS/OH Valleys...
Embedded within the amplified south/southwesterly flow aloft,
several perturbations will track north along a well-defined inverted
trough across the MS and lower OH valleys. A weak wave cyclone,
associated with the upper jet max, will also shift north providing
some focus for convective potential through the late afternoon and
into the overnight hours as it draws deeper moisture northward into
the OH Valley. Strong low-level warm advection of seasonably deep
moisture will support moderate buoyancy along and south of the
front. With weak ascent spread over much of the frontal zone,
several clusters of strong to severe storms with the potential for
damaging winds and a couple tornadoes appear likely.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2025

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a
broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley
to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts
and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A stalled front will provide the main impetus for severe storm
development from the ArkLaTex to the Mid Atlantic Thursday and
Thursday night. Broad troughing over the central US will gradually
amplify as strong flow aloft overspreads the frontal zone. Deep
moisture and seasonably warm temperatures along and south of the
elongated frontal zone will support the potential for strong to
severe storms over a large area.

...ArkLaTex to the MS/TN Valleys...
Elevated storms are likely to be ongoing near the stalled front
early in the period across parts of the Red River and ArkLaTex
vicinity. Flow aloft will turn more southerly, aiding in increasing
low-level warm advection through the day despite relatively neutral
mid-level height tendency. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s F, moderate buoyancy is likely with only partial diurnal
heating. This should sustain the early storms, allowing them to
spread east, and potentially become surface based over parts of the
MS/TN Valleys. Effective shear of 55+ kt will favor a mix of
supercells and bowing segments capable of damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes.

Additional storms are likely along the dryline over northeast TX and
within the warm sector across parts of southern AR and northern LA
by mid afternoon. Deep veering wind profiles suggests these storms
will likely be supercellular, though the weak capping will favor
multiple interactions and relatively quick upscale growth into one
or more clusters with time. Until then, strong low/mid-level shear,
steep mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a
risk for all hazards.

With multiple rounds of convection likely to pass through the area,
confidence in the placement of the front is low. Some consideration
was given to higher probabilities across parts of northeast TX,
southern AR and northern LA, given the potential for several
supercells or a well organized bowing segment.

Another round of elevated storms is likely late Thursday into early
Friday as the flow aloft becomes increasingly meridional over the
southern Plains. Strong low-level warm advection and steep mid-level
lapse rates will support a risk for large hail as storms overrun the
stalled front across central and northwest TX, into southern OK
overnight.

...OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic...
Complications abound from overnight convection likely persisting
into the daylight hours across the OH Valley. The front is forecast
to continue to sag south and stall eventually across the OH Valley
and Mid Atlantic by midday Thursday. South of the boundary low 60s F
surface dewpoints and some filtered diurnal heating should support
around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Several embedded mid-level perturbations
may provide enough ascent for additional convective development
through the day.  Vertical shear will remain strong as increasingly
zonal winds aloft overspread the frontal zone. Several clusters of
strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk
primarily for damaging winds and tornado or two, given the
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is expected today and tonight from parts of the
mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys westward into the eastern
Ozarks. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple long-track EF3+
tornadoes appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, severe wind gusts,
and large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas
northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.

...Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys/Eastern Ozarks...
A potent mid-level trough will move northeastward across the central
U.S. today, as a mid-level jet strengthens to over 120 knots, and
ejects rapidly northeastward into the Upper Midwest. At the surface,
a low will move into the upper Mississippi Valley, as a cold front
advances eastward through the central states. Ahead of the front, a
moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks and lower to mid
Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints increasing into the mid
to upper 60s F. While storms will likely be ongoing near the front
during the day, the airmass further to the east is forecast to
remain undisturbed and will significantly destabilize during the
day. By early to mid afternoon, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into
the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range across much of the moist airmass. The
500 mb jet is forecast to eject northeastward at nearly 55 knots
into the upper Mississippi Valley. Large-scale ascent associated
with the right entrance region of the jet will overspread the moist
sector, becoming favorable for vigorous convective development. 

Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement, that scattered
discrete convective initiation will take place well to the east of
the front near the instability axis during the mid to late
afternoon. Forecast soundings across the mid Mississippi Valley from
21Z to 00Z increase 0-3 km storm-relatively helicity to around 400
m2/s2, and have strong deep-layer shear near 60 knots. This will be
favorable for supercells and tornadoes. The ECMWF and NAM are in
good agreement, developing a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet max
centered over far western Tennessee at 00Z. As supercells move
eastward into the low-level jet, very strong low-level shear will be
favorable for numerous tornadoes. The most intense tornadic
supercells will be capable of producing long-track EF3+ tornadoes.
Multiple EF3+ tornadoes are expected in the mid Mississippi Valley.
The duration of the tornado threat should persist from afternoon
into the evening. A potential for supercells and tornadoes will
extend northward into the lower Ohio Valley and southwestward into
the southern Ozarks. In those two locations, the more intense
discrete supercells could produce strong tornadoes.

In addition to the tornado threat, supercells associated with large
hail and severe wind gusts are expected to form in the mid to late
afternoon across a large area from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward to
the southern Great Lakes. Large hail will also be possible with
supercells that develop along and near the front, further west into
the Ozarks. The more intense supercells should have potential to
produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. During the mid
to late evening and overnight period, several organized line
segments are expected to organize and move eastward into the
Tennessee Valley, lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Gusts
above 70 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing segments.
The severe threat is expected to continue into the overnight period.


...North Texas...
A mid-level trough will move northeastward across the central Plains
this morning. At the surface, as a cold front will advance eastward
through the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place over much of the eastern half of
Texas. In spite of weak forcing, isolated thunderstorms may initiate
along or ahead of the front as surface temperatures warm this
morning. Forecast soundings ahead of the front in north Texas have
0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5
C/km. This environment will likely support a large hail threat with
any supercells that can develop. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more
vigorous supercell downdrafts. The severe threat is expected to
gradually end during the day across parts of northwest and
north-central Texas as the front moves eastward. However, isolated
supercells with large hail could redevelop during the evening and
overnight, as warm advection again brings low-level moisture
northward into the Red River Valley.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 04/02/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA...KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storm development will be possible into the
overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains, with
large hail and severe gusts. A tornado will be possible. Late
tonight, an organized line of thunderstorms with severe wind gusts
and isolated large hail is expected to develop across parts of
central and eastern Kansas.

...Southern Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a southwest flow pattern over
the central U.S., with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs
moving through the flow. One shortwave trough appears to be in
south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma. This feature is likely
supporting isolated convective development to the east of a
Kansas-Oklahoma dryline. To the east of the dryline early this
evening, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F across south-central
Kansas and near 60 F over much of Oklahoma. MLCAPE to the east of
the dryline is estimated by the RAP to be between 1000 and 2000
J/kg. Moistening will likely continue to occur across the southern
Plains this evening, and convective initiation will be possible
along a front moving southeastward across the region. RAP forecast
soundings late this evening show strong deep-layer shear and steep
mid-level lapse rates. This will support isolated severe storm
development with large hail.

After midnight, some model solutions produce scattered thunderstorms
across parts of central and northern Oklahoma. If this occurs, then
a threat for supercell with large to very large hail, and wind
damage will be possible. A tornado threat could also develop.

Further southwest into parts of the low Rolling Plains of
north-central and southwest Texas, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible this evening. Convective coverage is expected to
remain very limited due to a lack of large-scale ascent. If a cell
can initiate and grow upscale, then large hail will be possible. A
few severe wind gusts could also occur.

...Central Plains...
The latest surface analysis has a 986 mb low in northwest Kansas. A
cold front is moving through western Kansas, with a warm front
moving through northeast Kansas. A dryline extends southward from
the low across west-central Kansas. Isolated convective initiation
may take place near the dryline this evening across south-central
and southeastern Kansas. A north-to-south axis of moderate
instability is analyzed across central Kansas, where MLCAPE is
estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, regional
WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range, with a
curved hodograph in the lowest 3 km AGL. Also, forecast soundings in
central Kansas have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment could support isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.
A tornado threat will also be possible, especially as the storms
move eastward into a strengthening low-level jet later tonight. A
strong tornado could occur. Severe storms will also be possible
further north into parts of southeast Nebraska. These storms should
be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

Later tonight, convection is expected to develop along and ahead of
a cold front moving southeastward across central Kansas. Model
forecasts suggest that a line will remain organized through late in
the period, possibly affecting eastern Kansas. Severe wind gusts
will be possible near and just ahead of this convective line.

...North-central California...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough
moving eastward across northern California. Ahead of this feature,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from the northern
Sierras southward into the Sacramento Valley. The airmass along this
corridor is weakly unstable, according to the RAP. Forecast
soundings in the Sacramento Valley have SBCAPE of 250 to 500 J/kg,
0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots,and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7
C/km. This environment may support a marginal severe threat this
evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/02/2025

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT TUE APR 01 2025

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and
southern Plains this evening and overnight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Central to northeast Oklahoma
  Central to eastern Kansas
  Western Missouri

* HAZARDS...
  A few intense tornadoes
  Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force
  Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this
  evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few
  supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes
  appear possible, particularly across central Oklahoma into
  eastern Kansas, with the strong tornado risk persisting into the
  overnight. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose
  a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into
  western Missouri tonight.

Preparedness actions...

Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they 
are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to
NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and
warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable
for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado
warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety,
ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0815 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA...KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storm development will be possible into the
overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains, with
large hail and severe gusts. A tornado will be possible. Late
tonight, an organized line of thunderstorms with severe wind gusts
and isolated large hail is expected to develop across parts of
central and eastern Kansas.

...Southern Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a southwest flow pattern over
the central U.S., with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs
moving through the flow. One shortwave trough appears to be in
south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma. This feature is likely
supporting isolated convective development to the east of a
Kansas-Oklahoma dryline. To the east of the dryline early this
evening, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F across south-central
Kansas and near 60 F over much of Oklahoma. MLCAPE to the east of
the dryline is estimated by the RAP to be between 1000 and 2000
J/kg. Moistening will likely continue to occur across the southern
Plains this evening, and convective initiation will be possible
along a front moving southeastward across the region. RAP forecast
soundings late this evening show strong deep-layer shear and steep
mid-level lapse rates. This will support isolated severe storm
development with large hail.

After midnight, some model solutions produce scattered thunderstorms
across parts of central and northern Oklahoma. If this occurs, then
a threat for supercell with large to very large hail, and wind
damage will be possible. A tornado threat could also develop.

Further southwest into parts of the low Rolling Plains of
north-central and southwest Texas, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible this evening. Convective coverage is expected to
remain very limited due to a lack of large-scale ascent. If a cell
can initiate and grow upscale, then large hail will be possible. A
few severe wind gusts could also occur.

...Central Plains...
The latest surface analysis has a 986 mb low in northwest Kansas. A
cold front is moving through western Kansas, with a warm front
moving through northeast Kansas. A dryline extends southward from
the low across west-central Kansas. Isolated convective initiation
may take place near the dryline this evening across south-central
and southeastern Kansas. A north-to-south axis of moderate
instability is analyzed across central Kansas, where MLCAPE is
estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, regional
WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range, with a
curved hodograph in the lowest 3 km AGL. Also, forecast soundings in
central Kansas have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment could support isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.
A tornado threat will also be possible, especially as the storms
move eastward into a strengthening low-level jet later tonight. A
strong tornado could occur. Severe storms will also be possible
further north into parts of southeast Nebraska. These storms should
be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

Later tonight, convection is expected to develop along and ahead of
a cold front moving southeastward across central Kansas. Model
forecasts suggest that a line will remain organized through late in
the period, possibly affecting eastern Kansas. Severe wind gusts
will be possible near and just ahead of this convective line.

...North-central California...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough
moving eastward across northern California. Ahead of this feature,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from the northern
Sierras southward into the Sacramento Valley. The airmass along this
corridor is weakly unstable, according to the RAP. Forecast
soundings in the Sacramento Valley have SBCAPE of 250 to 500 J/kg,
0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots,and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7
C/km. This environment may support a marginal severe threat this
evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/02/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening
over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a
risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible,
particularly across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of
thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for
severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri
tonight.

No changes have been made to the ongoing convective outlook severe
risk areas.  Low-level moisture is streaming northward, roughly in
line with model guidance.  This will lead to a corridor of strong
instability and only weak cap by late afternoon to the east of the
surface dryline.  Widely scattered intense supercells are expected
to develop by early evening along the dryline from central KS into
central OK.  Very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameters
suggest all severe hazards are possible with these storms, including
very large hail and a strong tornado or two.

Overnight, the primary upper trough and associated 100 knot
mid-level jet max will move into the Plains states, leading to the
development of another round thunderstorms over eastern KS/OK before
12z. These storms will also pose a risk of large hail and a few
tornadoes.

..Hart.. 04/01/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025/

...OK-TX...
Visible-satellite imagery shows stratus and moisture streaming
northward through TX into OK on strengthening southerly low-level
flow.  Increasingly rich moisture around 850 mb layer will mix
downward beneath an initially strong capping inversion sampled on 12
UTC area observed soundings.  Heating of an increasingly moist and
destabilizing boundary layer will result in a very unstable airmass
late this afternoon into the early evening.  Models show lower 60s
dewpoints reaching I-40 by early evening.  Very strong and favorable
wind profiles for supercells will support rapid supercell
development if storms initiate (22-01 UTC).  Models differ on the
diurnal storm coverage casting considerable uncertainty---but some
guidance has trended towards at least one to a few dryline discrete
supercells across the southern Great Plains.  Very large hail and
tornadoes would be the primary hazards.  Enlarged and elongated
hodographs would support the potential for strong tornadoes provided
a sustained supercell develops late this afternoon/evening.  Later
tonight, models show richer moisture with a very unstable airmass
being maintained.  Of particular note is forcing for ascent
perturbing the airmass from north-central TX into OK near and ahead
of the front.  A nocturnal risk for renewed supercell development
capable of all hazards would be strongly favored with any activity
not undercut by the front---mainly during the 08-12 UTC period.  

...Central Plains into Missouri...
Not much change in thinking from the prior forecast.  The cap is
forecast to erode on the northern periphery of more appreciable
moisture over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early
evening.  At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK
vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward.  Moderate
to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective
bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated
threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter).  As the
southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs
will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to
support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength
of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb)
and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear
possible.  A line of convection should also erupt along the cold
front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward
into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with
the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable
for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+
mph gusts. 

...Central Valley of California...
With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the
western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon
heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a
risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado
across portions of the Central Valley in CA.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TO MUCH OF THE MID-MS VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC....

...SUMMARY...
A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal
zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the
primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River to the Mid
MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic, will serve as the
primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad
troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide
coverage of strong to severe storms over a large area.

...Red River to the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across from the Ohio Valley
to the Red River at the beginning of the period as a broad low-level
jet interacts with a frontal zone. Some of this activity could be
severe at the beginning of the period, especially near the Red
River, where steeper lapse rates and stronger isentropic ascent is
forecast. If this activity near the Red River can maintain along the
instability gradient, it could materialize into an increasing severe
threat into Arkansas perhaps as early as mid-morning. However, given
the strength of the low-level jet, expect substantial precipitation
in the morning across Arkansas which could limit eastward
continuation of the early threat. 

However, regardless of how the morning activity evolves, there will
likely be a corridor from the ArkLaTex to near Memphis where strong
instability and strong shear will be present south of any ongoing
thunderstorm activity. Maintenance of a low-level jet through the
day should provide ample ascent for thunderstorm development.
However, rising heights ahead of the deepening western CONUS trough
do cast some doubt on convective coverage. In addition, a more
robust cold pool could limit longevity of any storms within this
better environment before moving into the rain-cooled air. 

...OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic...
As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level
flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley
into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty
on the presence of convection along and north of the front,
plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it.
Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent
for additional convective development through the day. Several
clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front
with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor
mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and
eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model
differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the
stalled front.

..Bentley.. 04/01/2025