SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NC...ERN VA...SERN PA...THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND SRN/CNTRL NJ... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity may continue to pose the risk for locally damaging wind gusts while overspreading the Chesapeake Bay and northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity late this evening. ...01Z Update... ...Mid Atlantic... Given the modest strength of the southwesterly deep-layer mean flow (around 40 kt), with the loss of boundary-layer heating, thermodynamic profiles near/east of the pre-frontal surface trough across the Mid Atlantic vicinity are becoming increasingly marginal for convective development capable of producing damaging wind gusts. ...Florida... A couple of strong thunderstorms linger near a weak surface trough across the east central Florida Peninsula, where mixed-layer CAPE is moderately large, but diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. Given the rather weak lower/mid-tropospheric flow and modest deep-layer shear, thunderstorm intensities are expected to wane within the next hour or two. ...Deep South Texas... Another isolated strong to severe thunderstorm has developed to the east of Laredo near a diffuse dryline, as an initial severe storm near the San Antonio vicinity dissipated. However, given the inhibition associated with warm, dry lower/mid-tropospheric air present across the region, this latest cell is not expected to be long-lived, as boundary-layer cooling proceeds and inhibition increases further. ..Kerr.. 04/01/2025Read more
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