SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, remain likely. Additionally, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail remain possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. ...01z Update... An elongated corridor of severe thunderstorms has evolved from southern Arkansas, northeast across the Boot Heel of Missouri into northern Indiana. Numerous tornadic supercells are noted along this zone, especially across the High Risk area from southern Arkansas into southern Illinois. Multiple long-lived tornadoes have likely produced significant damage in places, and this threat will continue into the late evening/overnight hours. Intense LLJ is forecast to translate across the western Tennessee Valley into the lower Great Lakes, and this will contribute to a northeastward shift of organized convection after midnight as the primary short-wave trough ejects toward lower Michigan. Environmental parameters continue to favor strong tornadoes and damaging winds, along with large hail. Upstream across Texas, a secondary low-latitude short-wave trough will approach far West Texas late in the period. In response to this feature, LLJ is forecast to increase across the Edwards Plateau by 03/06z, and strengthening is expected as the LLJ shifts toward the I35 corridor by sunrise. Significant destabilization is expected into north-central Texas late as moisture surges north. As a result, supercells are expected to develop and spread east-northeast. ..Darrow.. 04/03/2025Read more
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