SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California into the Great Basin, and across parts of the central Great Plains, Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper trough will move east across the West Coast on Sunday, with a strong backside speed max digging into the Four Corners states into Monday morning. Minimal elevated instability is forecast to develop primarily from southern NV into northern AZ and southern UT, supporting isolated weak thunderstorms late. To the east, a compact shortwave trough/upper low is forecast to move quickly into the central Plains, with low pressure developing over eastern CO into western KS. Given dry surface trajectories due to a surface high to the east, minimal low-level moisture return will occur. However, steep lapse rates especially during the late afternoon and cool temperatures aloft will support scattered thunderstorms, most prominent near the surface low over KS. Therefore despite strong shear profiles with this otherwise synoptically favorable system, severe weather is not expected. ..Jewell.. 02/28/2025Read more
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