Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance suggests that an initially zonal, intense mid/upper jet across the western into central mid-latitude Pacific may undergo considerable amplification into and through this period. It remains a bit unclear how emerging waves will impact the downstream pattern by the middle to latter portion of next week. However, it still appears that one significant preceding short wave trough, migrating inland of the Pacific coast by early Monday, will progress into and across the southern Rockies, before accelerating east-northeastward through mid week. And guidance remains suggestive that this will be accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis, perhaps most notably across portions of the east central Great Plains toward the lower Great Lakes region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. This may include an evolving warm sector with intensifying low-level and deep-layer shear (in the presence of southerly to southwesterly flow strengthening to 50-100 kt in the 850 to 500 mb layer), coincident with an influx of moistening and destabilizing boundary-layer air off the northwestern Gulf. Spread typical at this extended time frame (day 5) lingers among the various model output concerning the sub-synoptic, and even synoptic, details across the southeastern Great Plains through Ohio Valley and Southeast, which may considerably impact the severe weather risk area and potential. However, the medium-range guidance depicts an environment at least conditionally supportive of an organized severe weather event, including potential for a few strong tornadoes and damaging straight line winds. It is possible, but perhaps a bit more uncertain, that this could continue across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday.Read more
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