SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across central California and along the Oregon Coast, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid/upper cyclone is currently centered off the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low across much of the West Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving through this southwesterly flow into central CA, with continued northeastward progression across the Great Basin expected today. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly behind the first, moving into central CA tonight. Cooler mid-level temperatures will accompany this second shortwave, supporting the potential for a few lightning flashes as the frontal band moves ashore. Cooler temperatures aloft and increased forcing for ascent ahead of a third shortwave trough could also support isolated lightning flashes early tomorrow morning along the OR Coast. Farther east, upper ridging is expected to amplify as it shifts eastward across the Plains. At the same time, a fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress through southern Ontario and the Northeast. Additional southward progress of the cold front that currently extends from the Mid-Atlantic, TN Valley, Mid-South, and TX will be limited, with the portion of this front over TX potentially returning northward as a warm front Wednesday morning. Warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy along this boundary, precluding any thunderstorm potential. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/04/2025Read more
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