SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough continues to approach the CA coastline, along with cooler temperatures aloft, which are poised to overspread a marginally warm and moist low-level airmass later this evening and tonight. A broad precipitation band, with embedded low-topped convection, is still expected to traverse central CA with the aforementioned cooler temperatures aloft, supporting scant buoyancy and the chance for a few lightning flashes. A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions of the Intermountain West or the WA/OR coastline, as mid-level impulses pass over these regions later tonight. Even so, overall lack of buoyancy suggests that lightning flashes in these regions should remain too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected.Read more