SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night across the central and southern Plains. The greater coverage of storms is expected across parts of central and eastern Kansas, but significant severe storms will be possible farther south into Oklahoma and north Texas as well. All hazards are possible, including the potential for very large hail and a couple strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the western/central CONUS on Tuesday, as a powerful jet (80-100 kt at 500 mb) begins to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains later in the period. In response to this trough and jet, a surface cyclone will intensify through the day across the central High Plains, before moving northeastward toward the lower MO Valley Tuesday night. Rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will stream rapidly northward through the day and evening in response to the deepening cyclone and a strong low-level jet. The magnitude and timing of richer moisture returns remain somewhat uncertain, and will be crucial for the potential of storm initiation along/east of the dryline through early evening. Initial high-based storms are expected to develop during the afternoon across parts of central NE, where low-level moisture will remain limited but stronger early-day ascent will spread across the region. Buoyancy will likely remain modest this far north, but increasing low-level and deep-layer flow/shear could support a threat of isolated strong/severe gusts and hail as this convection spreads east-northeastward into the early evening. Farther south, the environment along/east of the dryline into parts of western/central KS/OK and northwest TX will become increasingly favorable for organized severe storms, as upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints (greater with south extent) spread northward and deep-layer flow fields become rather intense. However, lingering CINH will tend to inhibit initiation through much of the afternoon, and the late arrival of richer boundary-layer moisture results in uncertainty regarding potential for storm development through early evening. Any supercells that can develop along/east of the dryline would pose an initial threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Warm-sector supercells that are able to persist into the evening will encounter increasing boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear/SRH and would pose an increasing tornado threat. The Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but any increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would necessitate one or more categorical upgrades across this area. There is greater confidence in storm coverage during the evening into late Tuesday night across parts of eastern KS and western MO. A strong (60+ kt) low-level jet will become focused into this region, as the surface low begins to move east-northeastward across KS. Convection may remain slightly elevated across this area, but moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support a threat of large/very-large hail and severe gusts. Surface-based supercells could persist near the southern periphery of this cluster, with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 supporting a tornado threat, including the conditional threat of a strong tornado. An Enhanced Risk has been added where confidence is greatest in storm coverage within an increasingly favorable environment. Overnight, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front into parts of OK/TX, within a very favorable conditional environment for organized storms. Given the timing and a tendency for deep-layer flow to become parallel to the front, questions remain regarding the mode of overnight storms and whether they will be surface-based, but some all-hazards severe threat could persist through the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025Read more
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