SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph).Read more
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