SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains Friday evening into the overnight. ...Southern High Plains... An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the Pacific Coastal states on Friday, as flow remains southwesterly at mid-levels across much of the western and central U.S. Moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains on Friday, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F over much of Texas. By late Friday afternoon, a pocket of moderate instability is expected over parts of West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop during the early evening near this pocket of instability. As moisture and low-level flow gradually increase across the southern Plains from the evening into the overnight, convective coverage is expected to expand north and northeastward across much of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. A consensus of model forecasts suggests that MLCAPE will peak around 1500 J/kg in parts of west Texas Friday evening. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. The moderate deep-layer shear, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km, should support the development of a severe threat. Most of the cells are expected to remain multicellular. However, areas where the environment is locally more favored could support supercells with isolated large hail and a few severe wind gusts. The late initiation and lack of large-scale ascent is expected to be a limiting factor, and should keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 10/31/2024Read more
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