SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and wind damage, are expected to develop across parts of the southern High Plains on Saturday. A marginal severe threat will also be possible outside of the Slight Risk area in parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern and Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains from the Intermountain West eastward into the Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in place across the southern and central Plains, where scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the day. The strongest instability is forecast across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas by mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop in this area during the late afternoon and evening could be associated with a severe threat. NAM forecast soundings across west Texas by 00Z/Sunday suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 40 to 50 knot range as a mid-level jet of around 50 knots moves into the southern High Plains. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates in West Texas are forecast to be from 7 to 7.5 C/km by early Saturday evening. This should be favorable for supercells associated with large hail and severe wind gusts. The models currently suggest that a severe threat could be of rather long duration, with one round of storms developing across west Texas early in the day, and a second round of storms developing in the evening or overnight period. As these clusters move eastward into the Low Rolling Plains of west-central Texas and into western and central Oklahoma, the threat should become more isolated. Further north, from the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into western Kansas, moisture and instability are gradually forecast to increase Saturday night. Weak instability and moderate deep-layer shear, evident on forecast soundings, could support a marginal threat for hail and severe wind gusts with the greatest threat toward the end of the period. ..Broyles.. 10/31/2024Read more
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