SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe storms capable of wind gusts are possible today from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into east/northeast Texas. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South and ArkLaTex/East Texas... An extensive northeast/southwest-oriented squall line (650 miles long), with considerable trailing stratiform precipitation, extends from the Wabash River/Lower Ohio River southwestward into the middle of Arkansas toward the ArkLaTex and broader parts of northeast Texas at daybreak. This activity squall has been sub-severe in the predawn hours, but some re-intensification is possible into the afternoon as the boundary layer warms ahead of the slow-east/southeastward-moving squall line and effective front. Regionally, stronger flow aloft/deep-layer shear will reside across the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley where destabilization will be rather weak. Stronger instability will exist southwestward across east Texas/ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley (as per 12Z Little Rock AR observed sounding). However, a mid-level subsidence inversion will also tend to exist (sampled by 12Z Shreveport LA observed sounding), with a weakening low-level wind field through the day. As such, only isolated marginally severe wind gusts are expected regionally. Any such severe risk should diminish by around sunset. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/31/2024Read more
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