SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of producing occasional wind gusts remain possible today from parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/31/2024Read more
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