SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, a few which may become capable of marginal hail/wind, will likely evolve across parts of the southern High Plains Friday evening into the overnight. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the western half of the country Friday, amplifying with time as short-wave energy initially off the West Coast digs south-southeastward toward northern California through the period. At the surface, a cold front will shift across the Northwest and into the Great Basin and California, in tandem with the digging upper feature. Meanwhile, a remnant/west-to-east baroclinic zone will persist from the southeastern U.S. westward into the southern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Ahead of the amplifying western U.S. upper trough, weak mid-level height falls will support a zone of low-level warm advection across the southern High Plains vicinity. Afternoon heating of a gradually moistening low-level airmass will result in modest destabilization, with 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Little nocturnal decrease in instability is expected, as low-level theta-e advection supported by persistent surface southeasterlies should offset any diurnal cooling effects. Given the modest but sufficient CAPE expected by afternoon, ascent should support gradual development of isolated to scattered storms -- initially in the vicinity of higher terrain. Aided by veering/moderately increasing flow with height, shear should support multicell organization and potentially some mid-level rotation. As such, risk for hail and/or wind reaching severe criteria exists locally, with a couple of the strongest storms. This potential should continue overnight, with a northward/northwestward expansion of convection as the low-level theta-e advection increases in tandem with a strengthening south-southeasterly low-level jet. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024Read more
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