SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY SOUTH TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms -- along with potential for locally strong/severe storms capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts -- are expected Saturday across portions of the central and southern Plains, focused on the southern High Plains area of western Texas. ...Synopsis... Continued amplification of the large-scale pattern aloft is expected Saturday, as the deepening trough progresses eastward across the West. At the surface, an attendant cold front will continue crossing the Intermountain region, emerging into the High Plains overnight. ...Southern High Plains to western Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central Texas... Substantial low-level theta-e advection is forecast to continue across the central and southern Plains Saturday, as the upper trough advances and mid-level height falls ahead of the trough support a broad area of enhanced low-level southerlies. The southerlies through the lower troposphere, beneath increasing mid-level southwesterlies ahead of the upper system, will result in a broad region where deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms. In conjunction with daytime heating of the moistening airmass, destabilization across eastern New Mexico and Texas will occur, with 500 to locally 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Though low-level foci for ascent will be subtle, ongoing/locally robust convection early in the period should persist -- and perhaps expand in coverage through the day, and then continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. Primary risks with the stronger storms will be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall area where the background environment will be sufficient to support some severe risk will be rather broad, at this time is appears that the greatest CAPE/shear combination will reside over western portions of Texas, from the Panhandle south to the Permian Basin. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024Read more
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