SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon across the central FL Peninsula where a moderately buoyant air mass persists. A low-amplitude upper impulse will pass to its north across the Southeast, but deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak. In combination with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the severe-storm threat appears negligible. Across eastern NC to far southeast VA, a weakening shortwave trough will progress across the region and offshore Tuesday evening/night. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon. Over the central to lower Great Lakes, a vigorous shortwave trough will move across ON and the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front ahead of this trough will similarly move eastward, reaching Lower MI to IN by afternoon. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, meager surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the front. But warm 700-mb temperatures and weak mid-level lapse rates, especially with southern extent along the front, suggest instability will remain limited and thunderstorm coverage will be sparse. With the bulk of stronger mid/upper flow lagging behind the front, severe storms are not anticipated. Limited mid-level moisture from the Mogollon Rim into southern AZ may promote very isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Grams.. 09/30/2024Read more
RSS Feed
