SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect central/eastern North Carolina through early evening. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...NC... Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA, albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible, with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary.Read more
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