Steve Anderson

Citizens Federal Tax Dollars Are Already Bailing Out State Governments The amount of federal tax dollars that flow to s...

4/30/2020

Citizen’s Federal Tax Dollars Are Already Bailing Out State Governments The amount of federal tax dollars that flow to states including their governments is a stunning amount even before the various stimuli dispersions. Food Stamps, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, Medicaid, Medicare and a host of other federal programs send massive amounts of funding to states. Direct disbursements to states even without the influx of stimuli funds can be a huge part of the state g...

at Steve Anderson - Real Fiscal Conservatism - April 30, 2020 at 10:32AM
Citizen’s Federal Tax Dollars Are Already Bailing Out State Governments The amount of federal tax dollars that flow to s...,

Click the headline to Read the full article at Steve Anderson's Facebook Page, Real Fiscal Conservatism In Government.

As new data comes in we find out some things most already suspected on the CoVid crisis. 1) NYC and the surrounding area...

4/27/2020

As new data comes in we find out some things most already suspected on the CoVid crisis. 1) NYC and the surrounding areas outbreak was made worse by a reduction in the schedule of their mass transit system which created a crowded environment. No doubt the dark and dank environment of the NYC subway system provided the perfect environment for the virus to stay active on inert surfaces. 2) Nursing home residents have been the hardest hit. In Iowa 50 percent of the deaths and... in the most populous county in Kansas it is a whopping 70 percent. 3) Several studies now point to a fatality rate more consistent with the flu but as a much more contagious virus those fatalities have been incurred over a shorter time span. 4) The economic crisis created by our leader's reactions will be much longer lasting than the virus. A host of oil companies have or will be filing bankruptcy, estimates as high as 50 percent of all non-chain owned restaurants will never re-open, some old classics like Nieman Marcus and J. C. Penny are in bankruptcy, roughly $300 billion of corporate debt may go into default putting pension systems and retirement accounts in peril and ---in my opinion a factor that is impossible to calculate but really important---a huge number of start-ups will be lost due to the leverage and lack of cash flow those entities usually have. As in life every bad thing that happens to you can be a learning experience and let us hope that we learned that next time we identify at risk groups earlier and let everyone else practice individual responsibility.

at Steve Anderson - Real Fiscal Conservatism - April 27, 2020 at 09:23AM
As new data comes in we find out some things most already suspected on the CoVid crisis. 1) NYC and the surrounding area...,

Click the headline to Read the full article at Steve Anderson's Facebook Page, Real Fiscal Conservatism In Government.

A little logical though on why business and the general public can't cede the country to the medical profession. 1) The...

4/25/2020

A little logical though on why business and the general public can't cede the country to the medical profession. 1) The medical profession has some extremely admirable goals with the primary one being limiting the loss of life. Admirable but at some point counterproductive. How could I say such a horrible thing? Take this to its logical extreme---we take every resource of the country and focus it simply on saving lives. Now the only jobs are those supporting this goal a...nd every dollar is spent for the same. Mankind's only advancement becomes prolonging life. It will not take long before we discover that the quality of life has deteriorated to the point that life may not be all that worth living. 2) They have not shown us that they can: 1) produce a model that actually predicts morbidity and 2) for all the money thrown at cancer it and many long time nemesis of man still kill millions worldwide. No the medical community is not full of near 'gods' at all and while we may admire them they are not who we want running our country. China is the great Satan here but I will argue that listening to the medical 'experts' on how to deal with what China unleashed on us has created a scenario that will send the world into a great recession if not depression. The damage done economically will certainly send us into a recession but it may be far worse for the poor on this globe. Energy and agriculture are key industries for the survival of man. Both of those areas of the developed world's economy have been damaged severely. The developing and poor nations of the world depend on the largess of the developed world to avoid famine and pestilence. Unless something changes dramatically AND quickly that assistance will not be available in the quantities it has been prior to this for those most needing it. No I am afraid that the "hiding in place" that the Fauci Fear Train scared this country into will kill far more than it ever saved. Just a heads up from one of those in the high risk categories i.e. elderly; if you planned to live forever there always has been some serious flaws in your plan.

at Steve Anderson - Real Fiscal Conservatism - April 24, 2020 at 09:19AM
A little logical though on why business and the general public can't cede the country to the medical profession. 1) The...,

Click the headline to Read the full article at Steve Anderson's Facebook Page, Real Fiscal Conservatism In Government.

The people I feel for in this oil price crash is not the speculators in the put and call world holding options on margin...

4/23/2020

The people I feel for in this oil price crash is not the speculators in the put and call world holding options on margins. It is the little drillers and producers---and in the long run the consumers of energy. Drilling operations are being crushed by the price and the huge fall off in demand both world wide and in the US. Unit Drilling a long time stalwart out of Tulsa filed for bankruptcy this week. For decades they were a entity I played on the market due to their sh...rewd management reputation. That is how bad this hit is on the drillers. I have heard any of them with debt are already talking to bankruptcy attorneys about the best avenue. Producers are in their own conundrum. You can't shut a well in and just open it up. Some of the zones you have to be careful about even the concept of limiting production or they will close up. With no storage capacity or limited at best you can produce only so much before you have a hard choice. I think some misinterpreted my thought on allowing the private sector to store in the strategic reserve with a maximum price they would have to begin selling at as a "take care of the industry concept". Actually it is the consumers of energy---both industry and individuals---who are the biggest beneficiaries. If you force their stored reserves to be liquidated at $50 bbl it will put a cap on energy prices. The other alternative will be that the oil producers will be devastated and end up shutting in wells so there will be very limited capacity for supply to meet demand at some point. We have seen that in the past when oil ran up to a $100 bbl and the per pump price exceeded $4 a gallon.

at Steve Anderson - Real Fiscal Conservatism - April 23, 2020 at 02:26PM
The people I feel for in this oil price crash is not the speculators in the put and call world holding options on margin...,

Click the headline to Read the full article at Steve Anderson's Facebook Page, Real Fiscal Conservatism In Government.

What one hopes Oklahoma's Governor realizes is that there is opportunity here even as the current economy in Oklahoma is...

4/22/2020

What one hopes Oklahoma's Governor realizes is that there is opportunity here even as the current economy in Oklahoma is being devastated. I won't mention Kansas in this equation as Governor Kelly is not only without any business experience I genuinely believe she dislikes the private sector. Cheap energy should be the mantra he pushes with every industry, manufacturing plant and agricultural processing plant that might be thinking about relocating. A special pitch toward...s those industries that might be coming back from overseas would be a good place to start. Even without the CoVid this should have been his mantra on economic development with the abundant natural gas supplies. Natural gas's pipeline cost to deliver any distance has been a limiting factor on its usage and price. Bring the industry to the supply is the solution and that is a winner for all involved. Yet Oklahoma has not been able to capitalize on their price advantage. Now the idea of moving HQ and operations to a more 'rural' setting may have appeal to their workforce that it did not have prior to the CoVid. A good place to start on oil/gas would be to soften some of his image with the tribes by working with them to bring refineries and LNG plants to Oklahoma. The tribes can fast track refinery building---the last new refineries built have all been on tribal land---and the end market opportunities are huge. Port of Catoosa as a shipping point for a strategically located LNG plant on tribal land would be HUGE for the gas industry. A jet fuel refinery could be a win for OKC and Tulsa airports. Let us see if he can capitalize on the opportunity.

at Steve Anderson - Real Fiscal Conservatism - April 22, 2020 at 09:02AM
What one hopes Oklahoma's Governor realizes is that there is opportunity here even as the current economy in Oklahoma is...,

Click the headline to Read the full article at Steve Anderson's Facebook Page, Real Fiscal Conservatism In Government.

I hope someone in the White House proposes a more free market approach to the oil price free fall. Here is my idea. I ...

4/22/2020

I hope someone in the White House proposes a more free market approach to the oil price free fall. Here is my idea. I do think a strategic reserve has some appeal BUT I think a sounder idea would be to let the private sector use it as storage. Charge a small fee i.e. a percentage of realized profits when the price comes back up based on some reasonable price level. Say $20 BbL and then fix a price they must start selling at---say $50 Bbl. Only fully American owned compan...ies should be given this option and not BPS, EXXON etc. Who gets allocation of storage capacity should be based on 'bids' over that fixed price with the concept that all charges are put off into the future. The oil companies will not be made whole by this since they are forgoing current revenues for future revenues. Even with that only those with the cash flow to weather this or ability to reduce their "burn rate" would likely make it. Although possibly you could get loans or speculators to invest in your new ready to go reserves. The shake out will be painful on those who don't. However, we don't crater the whole industry and threaten US energy independence. Not being dependent on the Middle East and Russia for oil should be a standard American defense strategy. Consider the effect on other energy dependent industry and the consumer. If we allow a free fall collapse there will be a period where demand is restored but will have to wait for supply to catch up with it. Once you shut in a well you just can't reopen it. Normally I am for a totally free market but this abnormal event creates the need for abnormal approaches. The consumer---and industry--- will get whipsawed by the effect beyond any normal market adjustment. If you allow the companies to store and then to sell when it hits a certain price you will take much of the dip and rise out of the oil market. Reasonably stable energy prices will do more for a full economy than any other single thing they can do. A big plus is it has no cost to the taxpayer unlike buying for the strategic reserve.

at Steve Anderson - Real Fiscal Conservatism - April 21, 2020 at 10:22AM
I hope someone in the White House proposes a more free market approach to the oil price free fall. Here is my idea. I ...,

Click the headline to Read the full article at Steve Anderson's Facebook Page, Real Fiscal Conservatism In Government.

I have been involved in crisis budgeting at the state level a few times and in my private business life when my oil comp...

4/22/2020

I have been involved in crisis budgeting at the state level a few times and in my private business life when my oil company was wiped out in the 80's oil bust. I will say just offhand the government is much better structured to handle a crisis but for all the wrong reasons. Here would be my short list for both Kansas and Oklahoma: 1) Stop the direct payments to the OTRS and KPERS for one year. It is about $300 M to OTRS and $400 M to KPERS. The present value of a dollar... calculation makes this palatable fiscally. 2) Delay capital improvement projects across the board INCLUDING road and bridges unless they are in critical condition. Remove the revenues from anything but fuel taxes and direct federal payments. This will give the states several hundred million to work with---more in Kansas's situation than Oklahoma's but still sizable. 3) A voluntary buy out of older employees to reduce the costs of operation without harming those older employees. The structure is reasonably easy to design. Point it at 65 and older since they will qualify immediately for Medicare thus not putting them at risk health wise and not forcing the state to pay their health costs (one of the usual techniques). A simple five years of additional 'service' which amounts to a 10% increase in retirement for most of those long term workers. Once it again it is a present value of the dollar calculation and sadly an actuarial as many will die before they collect much of that 10%. However it is a fair deal for both sides as these are the higher salaried workers in general. 4) Review EVERY program and reduce or stop funding the ones that are feel good or special interest only. This is tougher than it sounds as every group will claim their "feed bucket" is essential. Legislators need to put those lobbying them in the public domain so voters can decide come this falls elections. 5) Review the Tax Expenditure report in both states to look at credits, deductions and just plain giveaways. Any that do not generate a net positive revenue or at least break even should be considered for the chopping block. If you really did all the above we are talking over a billion dollars easily. Let us see how much grit the legislatures and governors have.

at Steve Anderson - Real Fiscal Conservatism - April 21, 2020 at 07:36AM
I have been involved in crisis budgeting at the state level a few times and in my private business life when my oil comp...,

Click the headline to Read the full article at Steve Anderson's Facebook Page, Real Fiscal Conservatism In Government.

State city and county budgets in oil producing states will now take a double hit. However I hope our Governors and Ma...

4/21/2020

State, city and county budgets in oil producing states will now take a double hit. However, I hope our Governors and Mayors understand that their citizens are getting hit harder than they are---and I think they are in for a shock when they see their own revenues. There is a fix for state budgets---I have walked into a state with a $550 M shortfall with a negative ending balance of nearly $30 M and in 18 months had $700 M in ending balance---and I will put out a range of op...tions tomorrow for Oklahoma and Kansas legislators to consider. There are two things they can do right now: 1) open up every county with low or falling rates of new infections and ask the at risk to self isolate and 2) assure taxpayers that budgets going forward will NOT balance by raising taxes. Having been one of those who saw my own oil and gas company wiped out in the '80's bust I have a real sense of dread for the many people in the industry. They have acquired home mortgages and other debt just as every other person in our states and now in one quick move with no warning they are being wiped out. I know how it feels! One day I was walking on air and within a few months I was wondering how I would pay bills. However, I was lucky to not be leveraged and I saw many who were lose everything including their marriages. The fix for the states' budgets are not all that difficult and some of it has needed done. The good times have let the liberals swell the budgets with bad and/or inefficient programs and poor allocations of resources.

at Steve Anderson - Real Fiscal Conservatism - April 20, 2020 at 02:59PM
State, city and county budgets in oil producing states will now take a double hit. However, I hope our Governors and Ma...,

Click the headline to Read the full article at Steve Anderson's Facebook Page, Real Fiscal Conservatism In Government.

No surprise to any of us who looked at the phony models' assumptions that were used by WHO the MSM and those in the var...

4/15/2020

No surprise to any of us who looked at the phony models' assumptions that were used by WHO, the MSM and those in the various health bureaucracies who wanted their 15 minutes of fame. Many of us have have been saying what now is being backed by the data as it trickles in. Stanford University professor of medicine Dr. Jay Bhattacharya: "Per case, I don't think it's as deadly as people thought. The World Health Organization put an estimate out that was, I think, initially 3....4 percent. It's very unlikely it is anywhere near that. It's much more likely, much closer to the death rate that you see from the flu per case." How did these phony models shut down the country? There was two parts to this and neither party and their behavior are immune from participation in this debacle. First---and this is the norm for government---the states and federal government were largely unprepared even though they have known since SARs and were warned again in 2007 that another CoVid crisis was coming. Government, in general, reacts to a crisis instead of preparing for one. I, for one, was not at all surprised there was no emergency equipment for ICU back ups. Consider that even if they had put in place in 2003 after SARs the equipment to readily create multiples of current ICU beds that equipment would likely be 'dated' by now. Dollars for reoccurring replenishment of 'inert' items in any agency's budget would be tough to manage ESPECIALLY since bureaucracies like to spend their money on salaries for the bureaucrats. Second---and I suggest you always consider this with politicians---is there is no upside that justifies the risk of being wrong on these sort of crisis issues. If a politician had said what I have been saying all along had they been wrong and it was more deadly they would have been roasted and likely defeated in their re-election. Picture the "you killed my grandma" ads that would have been run by your opponent. By going with the 2.2 million projection they can justify their over reaction and do what every politician from Mayors to Governors to the President is claiming--"thanks to me you didn't see this death loss". Politicians will ALWAYS take the stance that makes them look the best and has the least risk. As voters we need to remember your Mayor and/or Governor who put you in lock down and consider whether you think that destruction of your local and state economy was justifiable.

at Steve Anderson - Real Fiscal Conservatism - April 15, 2020 at 07:32AM
No surprise to any of us who looked at the phony models' assumptions that were used by WHO, the MSM and those in the var...,

Click the headline to Read the full article at Steve Anderson's Facebook Page, Real Fiscal Conservatism In Government.

Some of the longer term potential economic fall out from the shutdown If the New Green Deal's alternative energy push wa...

4/14/2020

Some of the longer term potential economic fall out from the shutdown If the New Green Deal's alternative energy push was not already in trouble the oil price plummet has taken the wind out of its sails. Similar thing happened in the '80's when the price of oil took a nose dive. If you are an investor I would look for an opportunity to take profits or minimize my loss. Between the stored oil glut and how long it will take to get the world's economic engines back to consumi...ng large amounts of it I suspect the price doesn't see $50 for WTI for a long while. Cruise lines are an area I always avoided buying stock in largely because something like the Legionnaire's disease outbreak seemed likely to repeat itself at some point. I suspect that there will be a lot more like me as far as stock investment and a drop off in those actually taking a cruise. NYC and the concept of high density population lifestyles i.e. sky scrapers and mega apartments/condominium may take a hit. I know I would not want to own real estate in NYC right now. Their mass transit system seems the perfect breeding ground for a virus outbreak. At least in SF the BART is above ground and gets sunlight doused where as the subway in NYC is a dark, moist tunnel for most of its run. All the high percent of death per million state residents is in crowded metro areas. There is much to love about where I live with five acres, a large orchard, garden and green space between myself and neighbors. Maybe it is time for corporate America to look to less populated areas where their employees can experience living like something other than in a rat colony.

at Steve Anderson - Real Fiscal Conservatism - April 14, 2020 at 03:11PM
Some of the longer term potential economic fall out from the shutdown If the New Green Deal's alternative energy push wa...,

Click the headline to Read the full article at Steve Anderson's Facebook Page, Real Fiscal Conservatism In Government.

Steve Anderson
Real Fiscal Conservatism in Govt.

A Certified Public Accountant with more than 30 years of experience in private practice, he is currently a partner at Anderson, Reichert & Anderson LLC.
Anderson spent two years as a budget analyst in the Oklahoma Office of State Finance, and most recently served as budget director for the State of Kansas.
At one time he held 17 state teaching certifications ranging from mathematics to physics to business.

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