(The Center Square) - Oklahoma's unemployment rate year-over-year jumped from 2.9% in October 2021 to 3.4% in October 2022, but a new influx of job seekers is likely a factor for the spike, state labor officials said.
Oklahoma was the only state to see an increase year-over-year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Like most states, Oklahoma saw high rates of unemployment during the pandemic. The rate soared to 12.6% in April 2020 as employers shed workers because of a slowing economy brought on by shutdowns.
But the latest setback is not likely due to layoffs of involuntary separations, Trae Rahill, executive director for the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, told The Center Square.
"Unemployment rates can increase when an economy weakens but they can also increase during times of tight or strong labor markets," Rahill said. "Over the last 12-months, the number of unemployed Oklahomans has increased by nearly 10,000 but there has also been an increase in employment of just over 22,400. So, taking the whole 12-month time frame into account we see an economy that has been drawing people into an expanding labor force."
And some Oklahomans have again entered the workforce to take advantage of attractive job offers, according to Rahill.
"Even in the last few months when estimates have indicated a more significant cooling of the labor market with few job openings, coupled with less hiring, and a net decline in both household and establishment survey employment, we are still seeing no serious indication yet of increasing layoffs or involuntary separations," Rahill said. "If this was to change, and we are watching it closely, then conditions would deserve more concern."
Rahill said the OESC does not make official predictions, but it seems likely the year-over-year rate will increase again. Those numbers will be released on December 12.
"That rate will be compared to Nov 2021's level of 2.8% so the Nov 2022 estimate would have to make a nearly unprecedented monthly decline for this not to happen," Rahill said.
Rahill said there is no official projection for 2023.
"It is fair to say that many economists expect the nation's labor markets to face substantial headwinds for at least the first half of 2023," Rahill said. "The forecast published several weeks ago by the Federal Reserve foresees the national unemployment rate moving higher over the duration of 2023."
via Oklahoma's Center Square News