When Georgia first emerged as a battleground state this year, many Republicans thought that the idea that Joe Biden could win the Peach State was inconceivable. Unfortunately for the Republicans, as Inigo Montoya said in the “Princess Bride,” the word did not mean what they thought it meant and the Democratic candidate pulled out a squeaker. A Democratic win turned out to be very conceivable.

Now, in the Senate runoffs, the Democrats are hoping to repeat the feat in two Senate races. Once again, some Republicans, playing the part of Vizzini, are saying that a Democratic victory is inconceivable. But is it?https://ift.tt/3o59fPo

To determine whether the Democrats can pull off upsets in two more statewide elections, we must first understand how Biden was able to win in the first place. We can start by discarding the conspiracy theories about election misconduct. After multiple recounts, a hand audit of every ballot, a forensic audit of Dominion voting machines, and a signature audit of 15,000 ballots in Cobb County there is no evidence of widespread fraud. If Republicans want to pursue these conspiracy theories, it will only obscure the truth of why Donald Trump lost and possibly set up future Republican defeats.

What really happened is that Democrats worked very hard between 2016 and 2020 to register a lot of new voters. The architect of this campaign was Stacey Abrams, who lost Georgia’s 2018 gubernatorial election by only 55,000 votes and then, in Trumpy fashion, refused to concede the election. Abrams founded the New Georgia Project in 2014 and by 2020 the group had registered half a million new Georgia voters.

Even though the New Georgia Project is nonpartisan, the majority of these new voters were most likely Democrats. Pew Research found that black voters were the demographic group that increased most between 2016 and 2020. Latinos and whites tied for second.

But wait! There’s more!

It wasn’t just an increase in minority voters, 2020 was a perfect storm that benefitted Democrat Joe Biden. Donald Trump was (and is) a historically unpopular president that shifted many segments of the electorate towards the Democrats.

The Upshot from the New York Times found that even with the influx of new black voters, the black share of Georgia’s electorate declined in 2020. Interestingly, the data analyzed by the Upshot also showed a slight (half a percentage point) shift toward Republicans in areas that were majority Hispanic and more than 80 percent black.

So why did Trump lose? Because these shifts were more than offset by larger shifts toward the Democrats in other areas. These included areas of high-income voters (by seven points), majority college grads (six points), suburbs (six points), 65-and-older voters (five points), and Obama-Trump areas (five points). Rural areas, areas with a majority of lower-educated whites, and majority-black areas also shifted to the Democrats by one point.

So, the bottom line is that a bad president pushed a lot of people towards Joe Biden while, at the same time, Democrats were registering hundreds of thousands of new voters. No systemic fraud was required and the lack of fraud is supported by the fact that many voters split their tickets and voted for down-ballot Republicans.

Now, the big question is whether Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock can repeat the performance. Polling is pretty sparse in the runoffs because, as FiveThirtyEight succinctly put it, the pollsters don’t want to risk being wrong. The average of the polls that we do have from FiveThirtyEight currently shows both Democrats with a slight lead. Real Clear Politics also gives both Ossoff and Warnock a slim advantage.

So yes, it is very conceivable that the Democrats could pull off a 2020 hat trick. Conceivable but unlikely in my opinion. Both  Ossoff and Warnock underperformed their polls in November, which makes me believe that a one or two-point polling advantage won’t be enough to carry the day.

But there are a lot of variables in the runoff that were not present in the November election. There is the election fraud controversy, which could generate turnout on both sides except that many Republicans are talking about boycotts either because they don’t trust the system or because of a misguided notion that not voting will somehow reveal the pernicious software in the Dominion voting machines when Republican candidates get a negative vote total. (I am not making this up. I couldn’t make this up.) For Democrats, the prospect of Republicans trying to overtly steal the presidential election could motivate many voters who would not normally turn out for a special election. Republicans are being urged to go to the polls to “Stop socialism!”

In the end, the election is going to be a tossup that will depend on base turnout from both sides. With large amounts of absentee ballots, we may not know the result on Election Night. As with the November election, the counting may take a few days.

Follow David Thornton on Twitter (@captainkudzu) and Facebook

The First TV contributor network is a place for vibrant thought and ideas. Opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of The First or The First TV. We want to foster dialogue, create conversation, and debate ideas. See something you like or don’t like? Reach out to the author or to us at [email protected].

December 31, 2020 at 01:27PM - David Thornton
Can Democrats pull off another win in Georgia? | David Thornton
Read the full story by clicking this headline, at The First TV

There has been a lot of water under the bridge since November 3. We’ve had a long discussion about election fraud and the president has made his case, both in court and in the court of public opinion, that the election was not free and fair. Almost two months later, the process is about to come to a head when the Electoral College vote is presented to the Senate on January 6. Some Republican senators, such as Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville (who has not yet taken office) and Josh Hawley of Missouri, have said that they will challenge the Electoral College vote. This is a fight that America does not need to have because the allegations of fraud and electoral misconduct have been weighed, measured, and found wanting.

I have detailed before how the president’s legal team has lost more than 59 challenges to the election. These lawsuits were notable both because of how they differed from the media claims made by the president and his lawyers – very few of the cases alleged any sort of fraud – but for their unprecedented request to disenfranchise the voters of entire states. No politician or lawyer has ever had the temerity to make such a request before.

Most of the lawsuits were laughed out of court by judges of both parties, in some cases by judges appointed by President Trump. This was due to both the thin evidence of their claims and the singular nature of the requested remedy.

Now the icing on the cake, a week before President of the Senate Mike Pence is due to accept the Electoral College results, is that the president and his lawyers had a portion of their request for signature audits of Georgia absentee ballots granted. The verdict was that there was no fraud.

The Georgia Bureau of Investigation and the Secretary of State’s office worked together to audit 15,000 absentee ballot envelopes in Cobb County after President Trump and his legal team alleged that the northwest Atlanta county did not properly match signatures. The result of the audit was made public yesterday in a press release by Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger titled “3rd Strike Against Voter Fraud Claims Means They’re Out After Signature Audit Finds No Fraud.”

“After a hand recount and a subsequent machine recount requested by the Trump campaign, a signature audit has again affirmed the original outcome of the November 2020 presidential race in Georgia,” the press release states. “A signature match audit in Cobb County found ‘no fraudulent absentee ballots’ and found that the Cobb County Elections Department had ‘a 99.99 percent accuracy rate in performing correct signature verification procedures.’”

If a 99.9 survival rate from COVID-19 is good enough for the president’s supporters then it seems that a 99.99 percent accuracy rate should be good enough in an election.

Coincidentally (or not), the president tweeted an attack on Gov. Brian Kemp and Raffensperger yesterday that, among other things, claimed that the Secretary of State’s brother works for China. This is also not true per a fact-check Georgia Public Broadcasting.

…The consent decree signed by the “Secretary”, with the consent of Kemp, is perhaps even more poorly negotiated than the deal that John Kerry made with Iran. Now it turns out that Brad R’s brother works for China, and they definitely don’t want “Trump”. So disgusting! #MAGA

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 30, 2020

It has been two months now since the election. The president and his legal team have had ample opportunity to find and present evidence of fraud or misconduct that is widespread enough to have affected the outcome of the election and that will stand up in court. They have been unable to do so.

At some point, Republicans need to hold the president and his attorneys accountable for their false and unsupported claims. When we’ve had 59 lawsuits and countless allegations dismissed and disproven over the past two months, the bar for evidence and belief should be set very high for new allegations. Unfortunately, that’s not what I’m seeing either from the Republican base or from many of the party’s elected officials.

There is nothing wrong with investigating allegations of wrongdoing, especially when they involve the integrity of our elections. There is, however, something very wrong with making baseless allegations and filing frivolous lawsuits. That difference is the difference between investigating a possible conspiracy and fueling the flames of a fanciful conspiracy theory.

The good news for America is that the evidence points to a free and fair election. We have a robust election security system and that system worked. There is no evidence of a conspiracy to switch votes for Trump to Biden, a conspiracy which at this point would have to include Republican governors, secretaries of state, county elections officials, the GBI, and Supreme Court justices appointed by Donald Trump himself.

The problem for conspiracy theorists is that this good news is not what they want to hear. One of my favorite sayings is Ben Shapiro’s maxim that “Facts don’t care about your feelings,” but there is another that is even more apropos here. Sir Arthur Conan Doyle said through his character, Sherlock Holmes, “Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.”

And that’s where we are today. We have eliminated the impossible theory that election fraud was so pervasive that it cost Donald Trump the election yet so undetectable that it left no evidence. The alternative, which is not improbable at all, is that more people voted for Joe Biden than for Donald Trump.

Embrace that truth. Weep over it if you have to. Rebuild the Republican Party in a way that will appeal to more voters than just its own base. Rejoice because it means that our system is not as swampy as we thought. Rejoice because a bitter partisan battle that could lead to civil war is not necessary.

But don’t undermine the Constitution, the rule of law, and the Republic that you claim to love by rejecting the express will of the voters. Hawley, Tuberville, and the rest should stand down and accept the Electoral College results.

The First TV contributor network is a place for vibrant thought and ideas. Opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of The First or The First TV. We want to foster dialogue, create conversation, and debate ideas. See something you like or don’t like? Reach out to the author or to us at [email protected].

December 30, 2020 at 04:33PM - David Thornton
Bad news for conspiracy theorists is good news for America | David Thornton
Read the full story by clicking this headline, at The First TV

The Georgia Bureau of Investigation completed a signature audit of Cobb County, and it did find a couple of mismatches. Out of 15,118 randomly selected ballot security envelopes, the investigators found exactly two mismatches. The sample represents 10.17% of the 148,588 mail-in ballots received by Cobb County election officials.

Here’s the findings: A wife signed her name to both hers and her husband’s envelopes.

2 out of 15,118. that's how many issues GBI investigators found in Cobb County signature audit. President claims major fraud with GA's signature match – but audit shows 99.99% accuracy – only issue a wife who signed both her & husband's ballot. read more:https://t.co/fuSOUB3JLk

— Justin Gray (@JustinGrayWSB) December 29, 2020

Based on this sample, the “error rate” is 0.013%. Now multiply 148,588 by that rate and you get (rounding up), 20 votes. Joe Biden won Cobb County by 56,411 votes.

Let’s take that math statewide. There were 1,315,294 mail-in votes cast in the presidential race (26.3% of the total votes cast). Using the same error rate found in the Cobb County sample, that means 174 votes would be overturned due to signature problems, statewide.

After a hand recount, Biden’s lead in Georgia is 11,779 votes. If you attributed all those votes to problems with mail-in ballots, or outright fraud, this would yield an error rate of 0.895%. To support that error rate, GBI officials would have to find 135 problem ballots in their Cobb County signature audit.

In simpler math terms, the GBI would have to have found 67 times more errors than they did find. Cobb County is the fourth most populous county in Georgia, after Fulton (which contains Atlanta), Gwinnett, and DeKalb.

This raises three possibilities.

First, maybe the investigators were looking in the wrong place. Perhaps Gwinnett County, which had 123,725 mail-in votes, and which Biden won by 75,594 votes, was overcome with massive fraud. To support that, over 9.5% of Gwinnett mail-in ballots would have to yield problems. So the GBI should audit Gwinnett too. Throw in Fulton and DeKalb too. As a matter of fact, why not audit the whole state? It would only cost a half million dollars or more, and take a few more months to complete. Then we’d know for sure.

Second, maybe the GBI is willfully part of the conspiracy. Maybe they didn’t “randomly” select security envelopes, but were handed a pre-selected sample to make it look good? I mean if there were zero problems, that would raise suspicions, so they planted an innocuous number to make it look “real.” In that case, throw the GBI, Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr (a Republican), Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, Lt. Governor Duncan Hunter, and Gov. Brian Kemp in the slammer. That’s what Lin Wood wants to do.

The third possibility is that the results are factual, correct, and they represent a voting system that yields consistent, reliable, and auditable results using a paper trail. Would I have chosen Dominion Voting Systems as the vendor, using a combination of touch screens, laser printers and ballot scanners in a complex dance? Probably not, and I’ve been following this process for a few years.

But the system that Secretary of State Raffensperger described as having layers of checks and double checks, both at the time an absentee ballot is requested, to the time it’s received, verified and the ballot separated from the envelope, seems to work with a reliability that if it were an airplane or a cellular phone system, it approaches “5 nines” at a reliability rate of 0.99986. The gold standard of reliability is considered “5 nines” at 0.99999.

There’s a runoff election in progress in Georgia. Voters need to believe the results of this election will be absolutely reliable, consistent, and accurate, because based on all the hand recounts and signature audits so far, they will be.

Follow Steve on Twitter @stevengberman.

The First TV contributor network is a place for vibrant thought and ideas. Opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of The First or The First TV. We want to foster dialogue, create conversation, and debate ideas. See something you like or don’t like? Reach out to the author or to us at [email protected]. 

December 30, 2020 at 06:59AM - Steve Berman
What a Georgia signature audit found, and what it means | Steve Berman
Read the full story by clicking this headline, at The First TV

Are we witnessing the downfall of America or will we outlast other empires? Nick Adams provided an ominous prediction to that question as the United States approaches its 245th birthday.

There are alarming signs that America is repeating the same mistakes of the great nations which came before us and if we do not change course we may be doomed to the same fate, he explained.

“The way that we are going means that the great American experiment that we know and that we love is very unlikely to make 300 years…”

WATCH:

December 29, 2020 at 02:29PM - Matt Howerton
Are we witnessing the downfall of the USA? | Nick Adams
Read the full story by clicking this headline, at The First TV

It was mid-morning.  I’d dropped the wife off at work, gotten the kids out of bed and fed, and was just settling in to watch a Star Trek rerun.  Then the phone rang.

I normally ignore phone calls when I don’t recognize the number.  But this time was different.  This time, my gut told me I should answer it.  So I did.  In doing so, I may have saved myself and my family from a nightmare. 

On the other end of the line was a gentleman from the U.S. Department of collections.  He informed me, to my shock and horror, that for the past several years I had failed to pay sufficient taxes. 

My blood ran cold.  I could have sworn that I had filed my taxes every year of my adult life.  I even saved all of the paperwork.  This couldn’t possibly be right.  But, according to the U.S. Department of collections, I was mistaken. 

This man went on to inform me that there had been court filings to garnish my wages, seize my assets, and possibly even put me in prison.  Not only that, but this was all going to happen in a very short time.  Possibly within days.

Fortunately, he had a solution for me.  He was in a position to set up payment arrangements so that I could avoid all of these dastardly consequences of my past tax failures.  All I had to do today was make my first payment of $250.  I just had to start by giving him my debit or a credit card number or even the numbers for a Wal-Mart gift card (apparently the go to place for Uncle Sam when it’s time to get groceries). 

“Well, yeah.  I would like to avoid prison.  But isn’t there a number I can call to confirm this?  I don’t want to just shell out $250 over the phone unless I have to,” I said.

“There’s no time,” he said.  “These court orders will take effect very quickly and if you want to stop this you need to act now.”

“But shouldn’t I have gotten letters from the IRS about this before now?  Besides, I’ve never heard of the U.S. Department of Collections.”

“The IRS doesn’t need to send letters,” he said.  “They’ve already gone to court.  You need to act now.  You don’t want to lose your house, do you?”

“Well, of course not.  OK, let’s get this taken care of.”

The above scenario is, obviously, made up.  But it didn’t need to be.  I’ve gotten these obvious scam phone calls before as have most Americans.  While the small details may change from call to call, the broad strokes remain the same. 

First, there is a dire prediction of disaster in your immediate future.  In a lot of these cases, I find that I’m usually being threatened with law enforcement because of made up past financial misdeeds on my part (such as unpaid taxes).  But this isn’t always the case.  Sometimes it is claimed that my social security number has fallen into the hands of some miscreants who are misusing it and I will be taking the blame for their bad behavior.  

Second, they claim that they, and only they, can help you escape this disaster.  No, calling the law enforcement agency or the collection agency or the court with which they’re threatening you isn’t going to do any good.  Only they can help you.

Third, in order to get their help, you must surrender some of your money or information to them … right now.  They will ask for credit card numbers and debit card numbers.  Oddly, they also say that gift cards to large, nationwide stores will do as well.  If they haven’t given themselves away by this point, this should be the clincher.  If you ask them where you can mail the check to, they will usually say there’s no time for that or find another way to deflect.  In other cases, they may ask for your social security number or some other vital piece of information.  In effect, this is their attempt to get money from you as well, just not in as straight forward a manner.  With this information, they could take out loans in your name or some other such thing. 

A fourth element that pops up if I press them is the immediacy of these things.  Do you have questions for them?  Too bad.  There’s no time for questions.  There’s no time to confirm what they’re saying.  There’s no time to call the court.  There’s no time to talk to the IRS.  This disaster is only heartbeats away and you must act immediately!

When these four elements are present, I know for sure someone is trying to scam me. 

So, why am I bringing this up?  Why am I writing about this on a political commentary web site when this would probably be more appropriate in a commercial from law enforcement on how to protect yourself? 

The answer is the four elements that I just listed and discussed.  The presence of those elements always means a scam, regardless of scale.  It can be something as small as your personal finances.  Or it can be as big as the end of the planet.

The presence of those elements always means a scam regardless of who’s delivering the message.  It can be a guy on the telephone, with a funny accent and a ton of noise in the background.  Or, it can be a smooth-talking politician, flashing a perfectly white smile, standing on a stage with ton of American flags in the background.

Some of you may have figured out where I’m going already, but I’m just going to come right out and say it.  These four elements of a scam (predictions of disaster, claim that only they can help, surrender of money, and immediacy of the need to act) are all present in something that the left has been beating us over the head with every day for the last two decades.  That is climate change.

Now, am I saying the idea of climate change itself is a scam?  No.  That is a debatable topic that is important to have but not my purpose today. 

What I am saying is that the treatment of the topic by our political elites is a scam.  I’m writing this now because the immanent inauguration of Joe Biden is about to bring this scam front and center in our lives. 

Biden will be a weak President.  Now I could go into his apparent mental decline to show this point, but there’s no need to.  One only needs to look at his record.  For his entire career he has been one to follow the Democratic party line.  He hasn’t been an opinion maker or set any agendas or advanced any of his own ideas.  He has followed the winds of the party, wherever they may lead.

This will not change simply because he’s sitting in the Oval Office.  The powers that be in his party will influence him and right now those powers are far leftists.  Those powers are AOC, Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.  And, of course, his Vice-President, the far-leftist Kamala Harris.

The Democrats that will be influencing him are the ones who have been repeating these four elements louder and more forcefully than anyone else.  They are telling us that the world is literally going to end because of climate change.  They are telling us that they alone have the plan that can save us (Paris Climate Agreement, Green New Deal).  They are telling us that this solution requires us to surrender to them our money and our freedom (their plans always include increasing prices on just about everything and jacking up taxes and surrendering our freedom).  If pressed, they tell us that the end is so immanent that we don’t have time to consider any alternatives (remember AOC’s twelve-year prediction?).  If pressed, they will repeat the line that 97% of scientists agree with their assessment (an assertion that isn’t true and would be irrelevant if it were).  All four elements of the classic telephone scam are present in the climate change discussion. 

Most Americans are savvy enough to recognize this over the phone.  On the national political stage though, many people tend to give the politicians the benefit of the doubt.  They tend to believe that it is a debate over policy and, therefore, legitimate in some way. This is a mistake.  Human nature is the same in all places and contexts and there are always some who seek to take advantage of others.  There are always some who try to pull one over on others.

So, in the coming weeks and months, as Democrats and liberals get closer to the seat of power, look for these four elements of a scam.  Be aware of them and be wary of the fact that their presence in a different setting doesn’t change their meaning or implication.  A scam is a scam, even if done on a national level.

You can follow Tom on Twitter (@SearlTom) and on Parler (@SearlTom).

The First TV contributor network is a place for vibrant thought and ideas. Opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of The First or The First TV. We want to foster dialogue, create conversation, and debate ideas. See something you like or don’t like? Reach out to the author or to us at [email protected]. 

December 29, 2020 at 08:58AM - Tom Searl
The four elements of a (climate change) scam | Tom Searl
Read the full story by clicking this headline, at The First TV

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo recently said black residents must receive the vaccine before other races. Twenty-five other states are putting that plan into action, Jesse Kelly reported last week.

“This thing has turned people into the creepiest thing ever,” Jesse said.

Is your state on the list for race-based vaccines? Find out below.

WATCH:

December 28, 2020 at 06:37PM - Matt Howerton
Race-based vaccine distribution in 25 states | Jesse Kelly
Read the full story by clicking this headline, at The First TV

Some Republicans have turned their backs on President Trump after riding his coattails for years and it’s time to expose them, says Madison Gesiotto.

Not enough congressional Republicans are taking a bold stand for election integrity and it’s time to “drain the swamp completely,” she argued.

“It’s not just Democrats that are part of the swamp, Republicans are part of the swamp too.”

WATCH:

December 28, 2020 at 05:47PM - Matt Howerton
Calling out the GOP swamp creatures | Madison Gesiotto
Read the full story by clicking this headline, at The First TV

A sense of normalcy will return to the United States around May thanks to the Trump Administration and Operation Warpspeed, said Bill O’Reilly recently.

He broke down the timeline of the president’s decisive action which debunks the “absolute lies” repeated by “the corrupt media.”

“So you cannot say that Donald Trump hasn’t taken this seriously, that he was not on the job…”

WATCH NOW:

December 28, 2020 at 12:25PM - Matt Howerton
Thank Donald Trump for the Coming Calm | Bill O’Reilly
Read the full story by clicking this headline, at The First TV

The reason for the assault on America’s history is because “they have to destroy who you are so they can remake you,” Jesse Kelly warned recently.

It is all by design as a means to an end which is for Americans to do their “job” as a “good little commie robot” and racism is one of the radical’s favorite tools to work toward that goal, he explained.

“They don’t want you to be an individual and they certainly don’t want you to be free… you are simply part of the collective.”

WATCH:

December 28, 2020 at 11:52AM - Matt Howerton
This is why the Left attacks American history | Jesse Kelly
Read the full story by clicking this headline, at The First TV

Political parties are important and convenient.  They provide ways for people of like minds to ally together and pursue a common agenda.  They provide avenues for strong leaders to emerge which, in turn, makes elections more like a well-refereed boxing match instead of the free-for-all cage fight that they otherwise would be.  They provide think tanks where ideas can be hashed out and matured before implementation.

Despite that, there is one aspect of politics that parties cannot eradicate, that is the propensity for each person to look out for themselves first. 

Many have speculated why we haven’t seen more prominent Republicans back President Trump in his various election challenges across the country. 

Could it be that they think he genuinely lost? 

Well … yes, that’s possible.  But there were plenty of irregularities in this election.  More than enough for any Republican to stop and say, “Hey, let’s take a closer look at this before we move on.”  There is certainly more evidence of voter fraud on Biden’s behalf in this election than there was for Russian collusion the last time around.  For three years that fairy tale kept the Democrats jacked up like a toddler on espresso after midnight.  So no, I don’t think this is the answer.

Could it be that these Republicans are simply trying to be the bigger person in this situation?  Could it be that they’re thinking, “Let’s not beclown ourselves through juvenile behavior for the next four years the way these Democrats did the last four.” 

No … that’s not the answer either.  Politicians don’t try to play the bigger person unless there is some political gain in it for them.  And the fact that most of those Democrats got reelected and that they (apparently) won the White House on top of that, is clear demonstration that there is no political drawback to such juvenile behavior as we all hoped there would be.

The answer as to why more Republicans haven’t backed Trump comes from this irrefutable law of politics that not even party loyalty can cancel out: each person looks out for themselves first. 

Demonstration of this fact came on Tuesday from former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie who said that he was open to the idea of another Presidential run in 2024.  He stated that he would even be willing to fight Donald Trump for the nomination if it came to that. 

“I’m not someone who wants to do it just to go through the exercise.  But if I saw a pathway to victory and a way to make a difference, I certainly would consider it,” he said in an interview with Hugh Hewitt.

Christie is not likely alone among Republicans eyeballing a run in 2024.  Among the other names being thrown about are: Vice-President Mike Pence, Ted Cruz (Senator-TX), Marco Rubio (Senator-FL), Greg Abbott (Governor-TX), Tim Scott (Senator-SC), Nikki Haley (Former Ambassador to the U.N.), Ben Sasse (Senator-NB), Rick Scott (Senator-FL), Larry Hogan (Governor-MD), Mitt Romney (Senator-UT), and Kristi Noem (Governor-SD).  This list could go on and on and make the crowded Democratic field of 2020 look like child’s play.

So, if all of these politicians and more are looking out for themselves and harboring a goal to run in four years, the obvious question arises: what benefit do they get by not supporting the President?  After all, Trump would be limited to two terms and if he were to be sworn in come January, he would not be able to run in 2024.  So, in theory, the gates would be wide open for any other Republican who wanted to take a shot.

The answer is Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

If indeed they are sworn in as President and Vice-President in January, then in 2024 it is most likely that one of them will be the Democratic nominee for President.  This is important because both of them are incredibly weak candidates.

Joe Biden’s “victory” came not through any special talent, charisma, charm, or ideas that he had.  His victory came because of four years of non-stop Trump bashing by the Democrat Party (and part of the Republican Party) and the media.  It came because the media absolutely refused to cover him, his family, and his past in any meaningful way.  It came because of name recognition and an association with Barack Obama, who remains popular.  Joe Biden’s weaknesses would make him a very vulnerable candidate if he ran for reelection in 2024.

Of course, I say “if” because there’s a good chance that he wouldn’t be the candidate.  He will be over eighty years old in 2024 and there are already serious questions about his health.  So, I think the odds are better than even that the Democratic standard bearer in 2024 will be Kamala Harris. 

Fortunately, she too would be a weak candidate.  As an extreme liberal from California, she would not perform well in the heartland.  As a primary candidate this past year, she proved herself to be intensely unlikeable (she’s been described as Hillary Clinton without the charm).  She is transparent in her ambition (which is a turn off for many voters).  She has a history as a Senator and state Attorney General that is vulnerable to attack.  And the less said about her laugh the better.

Additionally, polls show that nearly half of Americans believe there was significant fraud that played a part in this past election. If Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are sworn into office under those conditions, it will be a black cloud hanging over their head for four years and will stick with them at their next go around.

By not supporting Trump and ensuring a Biden victory, Chris Christie (and any other Republican thinking of running) is ensuring a push over Democratic opposition in 2024.  If this situation were reversed and Donald Trump won, then they would still be able to run.  But they would have no guarantee of a Biden or Harris as an opponent.  Instead, they might find themselves facing off against the next Bill Clinton of Barack Obama. 

Thinking about the next election may be distasteful given that we just went through an ugly one that seemingly isn’t over yet.  But the fact is, there are dozens of Senators and Governors and former Governors and others out there right now thinking about it.  They’re talking about it with advisors behind closed doors (or in Christie’s case in front of microphones).  They’re weighing their votes in the Senate and their decisions as governors with that end goal in mind.   They are plotting and planning their positions for the fight ahead.  They are determining which constituents they want to appeal to and what big donors they should court. And all of this will be upon us and in our face far sooner than any of us would like.

You can follow Tom on Twitter (@SearlTom) and on Parler (@SearlTom).

The First TV contributor network is a place for vibrant thought and ideas. Opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of The First or The First TV. We want to foster dialogue, create conversation, and debate ideas. See something you like or don’t like? Reach out to the author or to us at [email protected]. 

December 28, 2020 at 08:45AM - Tom Searl
Is Chris Christie the first out of the gate? | Tom Searl
Read the full story by clicking this headline, at The First TV