Lately, it seems like each year follows the conventional wisdom about the weather in Florida. If you don’t like the weather in the Sunshine State, just wait and minute and it will change. Or so the oldtimers say.

In recent memory, it seems to be the same way with each successive year. If you don’t like what is happening at the time, just wait – and brace yourself – because it could always get worse and probably will. Have we hit rock bottom with 2021, a true stinker of a year? Who can say?

When pressed to think about the worst of 2021, the continuing pandemic is the most obvious choice. Actually, it’s maybe not that obvious to a lot of us because a great many of us have been ignoring it for a while. Not long after I was vaccinated I put aside my masks and have only used them when requested for most of the past nine months or so.

In recent weeks, as Omicron has surged, I‘ve seen more and more people masking again. I’ve started wearing them occasionally myself when I know I’m going to be in crowded areas. Even though I’ve had my booster and realize that Omicron seems a lot milder than previous variants, I’d rather not deal with the hassle of getting sick and having to isolate (again) and rearrange my work schedule (again). I definitely don’t want to be responsible for spreading the virus to someone who might be more vulnerable.

Even though the pandemic seems to be winding down (thanks in part to vaccines and in part to Omicron), the Delta surge over the summer and fall shattered notions of a quick end to the pandemic. Vaccine resistance from a large minority also contributed to the continued spread of the virus and the rising death toll. As I write this, the global death toll stands at 5.4 million worldwide and 819,000 in the US.

The pandemic also ranks high on the list of the worst of 2021 because it contributed to so many other problems. The slow economic recovery, rising inflation, political discontent, rising crime rates, and a general malaise (to use a word that Jimmy Carter did not) can all be traced at least in part to the lingering pandemic.

Running a close second to the pandemic on my “worst of” list is the insurrection of January 6. The attack on the Capitol is not placed in its proper significance by a large number of Americans who want to minimize it and sweep it under the rug.

The US Capitol has been attacked on several occasions, including bombings in 1915, 1971, and 1983, but it has not been occupied by a hostile force since 1812. The Trumpist attack on the Capitol stands starkly alone in American history as a moment in which Americans attacked the seat of their own government. Not even Robert E. Lee’s Confederate army was able to accomplish what the Trumpist mob did in overwhelming the Capitol’s defenses and ransacking Congress.

What makes this all even worse is that the rioters thought themselves to be acting in defense of the Constitution when their political puppetmasters were really using them in an attempt to subvert the constitutional process. Many rioters were deluded by claims of stolen elections, but that doesn’t make their actions any less criminal as many have since realized. Hundreds of insurrectionists will be ringing in the new year in jail.

The third item on my list is also obvious even if it is almost forgotten now. The loss of Afghanistan was the worst moment of US foreign policy since… I don’t know, the fall of Vietnam? The loss of China in the Truman Administration? Anyway, it was bad. Very bad.

As I wrote at the time, we lost Afghanistan because both parties decided to stop fighting and lose the war. Donald Trump negotiated the pullout and started the withdrawal, but it’s fair to blame Joe Biden because he continued the same policy and followed through on it. The buck stops in the Oval Office.

What isn’t fair is to say that it would have been very different if Donald Trump had still been behind the Resolute Desk. Not only was Trump the architect of the withdrawal, but he also had a more aggressive timetable to leave.

And new information supports the notion that the withdrawal would have been just as disastrous under Trump. America and the world were surprised at the rapid collapse of the Afghan government, but a Wall Street Journal report from November detailed how Taliban moles had infiltrated all levels of the government. When the time came, Afghan cities weren’t attacked by invading armies from outside, they were seized from within. One harsh truth here is that it seems unlikely that the US would have prevailed even if we had elected to stay given how completely the Afghan government was riddled with Taliban spies.

Afghanistan was a disaster for Joe Biden, but that doesn’t make it a triumph for Republicans. No one came out of this looking good. No one, that is except the courageous Americans on the ground in Kabul and the dedicated US Air Force crews who rescued more than 124,000 people in the Afghan airlift.

It’s a little harder to come up with three good things about 2021. At least it’s difficult to list three things that aren’t personal because my life was pretty good in 2021 despite the national and global upheaval. My family has been healthy and happy. We’ve been blessed where so many others have had heartaches of many varieties. I’m deeply grateful for that.

Hands down, the best thing about 2021 was the widespread availability of the COVID vaccines. Vaccinations allowed us to start getting back to normal safely. A wealth of data is now available to show that vaccines greatly reduce the probability of becoming infected with COVID-19 as well as the probability of having a severe case that results in hospitalization and/or death.

I don’t agree with Donald Trump very often, but I do wholeheartedly agree with his recent statements that the rapid development of the COVID vaccines was a historical triumph. Countless lives have been saved around the world by these miracles of modern medicine.

At the risk of sounding repetitive, I’m going to go back to the insurrection for a second positive from 2021. Yes, we had a coup attempt and an attack on the Constitution, but we also survived it. And we did so with minimal violence and loss of life.

As bad as the insurrection was, it could have morphed into more widespread violence or a civil war. It is a testament to the professionalism of the Capitol Police that they didn’t just open fire on the rioters swarming their defenses. January 6 could have been much, much worse.

Finally, as a lifelong Braves fan, I’m going to invoke the World Series victory of the Atlanta Braves for item number three. The Braves hadn’t won a World Series since 1995. Prior to that, it had been an even longer drought with the franchise’s only two other previous championships dating back to 1914 in Boston and 1957 in Milwaukee.

The Braves have been known for years as “America’s Team.” A championship for America’s Team is a good omen for the country, right? Hopefully so.

We only have a few more days of 2021 left. God willing, 2022 will break our slump and turn out to be an improvement over the past few years. Things have to start getting better at some point, don’t they?

I’m tempted to say “good riddance” to 2021, but I’m reminded of “Click,” one of Adam Sandler’s lesser-known films. In the movie, Sandler’s character uses a remote to fast-forward to the “good” parts of his life. As a result, he finds that he has missed a lot.

The message of the movie is one that is relevant to us all, namely that no matter what is going on in our lives at the time, it is important to make the most of our time and spend our lives wisely. It’s the only one you get.

The First TV contributor network is a place for vibrant thought and ideas. Opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of The First or The First TV. We want to foster dialogue, create conversation, and debate ideas. See something you like or don’t like? Reach out to the author or to us at [email protected]. 

Follow David Thornton on Twitter (@captainkudzu) and Facebook

New York Governor Kathy Hochul declared racism a “public health emergency”  this week after signing legislation aimed at defeating discrimination across the state.

Hochul took control after former Governor Andrew Cuomo resigned amid multiple allegations of sexual misconduct.

“For far too long, communities of color in New York have been held back by systemic racism and inequitable treatment,” the Democrat said in a statement. “I am proud to sign legislation that addresses this crisis head-on, addressing racism, expanding equity, and improving access for all.”

“Our state is meant to be a beacon of diversity, equity, and inclusion, but without the tools to protect our marginalized communities these words carry little truth behind them,” claimed Assembly Member Karines Reyes. “The Hate Crimes Analysis and Review Act ensures that we collect accurate demographic data of perpetrators and victims to better protect the communities being targeted. Without data, the plight of many will remain invisible.”

“As New York continues to face the devastation caused by the COVID-19 public health crisis, it is essential that the needs of all of our communities be understood and met,” said New York Senator Julia Salazar. “For the diverse Asian-American and Pacific Islander communities in New York this cannot be accomplished without detailed data that recognizes and respects the experiences of the numerous groups that make up the AAPI communities.”

Read the full report at ABC News.

Doctor Anthony Fauci finally acknowledged an important distinction when discussing hospitalizations related to the Coronavirus this week; saying many children are being admitted “with COVID as opposed to because of COVID.”

“If you look at the children who are hospitalized, many of them are hospitalized with COVID, as opposed to because of COVID,” said Fauci.

“If a child goes into the hospital, they automatically get tested for COVID. They get counted as a COVID hospitalized individual. In fact, they may go in for a broken leg,” he added.

Watch Fauci’s comments above.  

Democratic Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ditched New York City for warmer weather this week, heading to Miami Beach for cocktails as cases of COVID spike to record numbers in all five boroughs of the Big Apple.

“The New York Democrat was seen, maskless and drink in hand, as she dined outside in Miami Beach, Florida, the National Review reported. The congresswoman and a companion were spotted at Doraku Sushi and Izakaya,” reports Fox News.

“You’re being played by @AOC dummies,” claimed one follower.

“Hey @AOC tell me you endorse @RonDeSantisFL without telling me you endorse @RonDeSantisFL,” posted another user.

“Welcome to Florida, AOC! We hope you’re enjoying a taste of freedom here in the Sunshine State thanks to @RonDeSantisFL’s leadership,” posted the Twitter account from TEAM DeSantis.

Read the full report here.

Vice President Kamala Harris dodged serious questions surrounding the Biden administration’s handling of the nation’s inflation crisis this week; bizarrely asserting people “need what they need.”

“Was it wrong to consider inflation transitory?” asked a reporter from CBS News.

“We have to address the fact that, we gotta deal with the fact that, folks are paying for gas, paying for groceries, and are, and need solutions to it, so let’s talk about that,” sputtered the Vice President.

“People need what they need. In terms of the long term, that’s about what we need to do to pass Build Back Better that strengthens our economy,” she added.

Watch Harris’ comments above.

Anthony Fauci spoke with ‘Morning in America’ this week to discuss the ongoing COVID pandemic; saying it’s his “job” to ensure the “health of the country is preserved.”

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio issued a stark reversal from his previous rhetoric regarding the COVID-19 pandemic; telling the Today Show he “doesn’t believe in shutdowns” to slow the spread of the virus.

“Given that some local officials are calling for you to cancel the in-person event altogether, why not scale back [NYC’s ball drop] even further?” asked NBC’s Kristen Welker.

“Look, I don’t believe in shutdowns. We have to fight our way through Covid,” claimed the Mayor.

Watch Dr. Fauci’s comments above.

Omicron, the newest COVID variant is sweeping across the plain. As Steve and I have pointed out in recent weeks, the evidence is mounting that Omicron is vastly more transmissible than the previous variants but with symptoms that are much milder. Experts believe that Omicron will become the dominant strain, but the CDC recently sharply downgraded its estimates of the progress that the variant has made.

Originally, the CDC had estimated that Omicron accounted for 73.2 percent of cases nationwide on December 18. That figure has now been revised down to 22.5 percent, an adjustment of more than 50 points and one that is far outside the normal 95 percent confidence of the agency’s figures and projections.

This doesn’t mean that Omicron isn’t coming, but it seems to be coming at a slower rate than was initially assumed. The newest weekly estimate for the week of December 25 was that Omicron made up 58.6 percent of new infections.

CDC spokesperson Jasmine Reed explained to Politico that the correction was due to additional information, saying, “We had more data come in from that timeframe and there was a reduced proportion of Omicron.”

In the past, the US has not done as many tests to determine the different strains of the virus that are floating around the country. Typical COVID tests don’t determine the strain of the infection, special genomic sequencing tests are required to differentiate between Delta and Omicron.

The massive difference between the presumed level of Omicron and reality is important because if there is not as much Omicron as originally assumed then that means that there is a lot of Delta still around. Delta is not as infectious as Omicron, but it is more dangerous, especially to the unvaccinated. This presents a serious problem because many people may be forgoing mitigations under the assumption that Omicron does not present a threat.

Previous infection doesn’t seem to protect against Omicron. The same mutations that diminish the effectiveness of vaccines also work to confound the body’s defenses from previous infections. The first confirmed US death from Omicron was an unvaccinated Texas man who had survived a previous bout with COVID. By the way, it’s also possible to be infected by both strains of the virus at the same time.

If there is still a lot of Delta out there then we would expect to see hospitalizations and deaths start to rise following the rise in cases. As the chart below shows, that is exactly what we see (click the tweet for the full chart since the end is cut off in the view).

This also explains why some hospitals around the country have experienced surges in cases that have overwhelmed their staffs and led to shortages of available beds and care. There is a direct link between low vaccination rates and COVID hospitalizations that put pressure on the healthcare system.

There is good news, however. One bit of good news is that if Omicron is tempering the current COVID surge then we can expect the overall rate of hospitalizations and deaths to fall below that of previous waves.

This doesn’t mean that there won’t be a lot of hospitalizations, however, because a lower rate paired with Omicron’s increased transmissibility can still wreak havoc. The basic math here is like considering two different sizes of pizza. A slice of a very large pizza that is cut into a dozen pieces could still be as large or larger than a slice of a small pizza cut into only four slices.

More good news is that vaccinations still work and they work on multiple levels. Especially with a booster, the vaccines do offer some protection against infection by both Delta and Omicron. The best-case scenario is that a vaccinated individual will not get sick at all. So far, there is no conclusive data on exactly how effective vaccines are against an Omicron infection, and the cocktail of different vaccine combinations is going to make such calculations difficult, but we can see a lower rate of infection in statistics.

The second line of protection offered by vaccines is that they guard against a serious illness in the event of a breakthrough infection. In the majority of cases, it is people who are unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated who end up in the hospital or the morgue. As the charts below from the Georgia Department of Health show, the unvaccinated are about three times as likely to be infected and four times as likely to die of COVID-19. The results are very similar all over the world. (I’m going to predict that the death rate will climb over the next few weeks based on the near-vertical surge in cases since the end of November.)

I do believe that as more people are vaccinated and the virus mutates the raw numbers of vaccinated victims of COVID will eventually exceed those of the unvaccinated. This has already been noted in some smaller population samples. The rate of infections will continue to be higher for the unvaccinated, however. Again, it’s a question of the size of the pie and how many slices.

The pandemic is not over. Omicron is not harmless, although it doesn’t seem to be as dangerous as previous variants. As has been since the beginning of the pandemic, the key to staying safe is to exercise sensible precautions. That mainly includes getting vaccinated and washing your hands a lot, but it might mean wearing a mask in certain high-density settings as well.

Y’all be careful out there.

The CDC has updated its guidelines for COVID isolation and quarantine based on new science and the changing situation with the variants. Per the new guidelines,

People with COVID-19 should isolate for 5 days and if they are asymptomatic or their symptoms are resolving (without fever for 24 hours), follow that by 5 days of wearing a mask when around others to minimize the risk of infecting people they encounter.

Keep in mind that “asymptomatic” means no symptoms, not mild symptoms. So if you have COVID symptoms and not just exposure or a positive test then the new guidelines do not apply.

This is a good change that the CDC says is “motivated by science demonstrating that the majority of SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs early in the course of illness, generally in the 1-2 days prior to onset of symptoms and the 2-3 days after.”

The First TV contributor network is a place for vibrant thought and ideas. Opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of The First or The First TV. We want to foster dialogue, create conversation, and debate ideas. See something you like or don’t like? Reach out to the author or to us at [email protected]. 

Follow David Thornton on Twitter (@captainkudzu) and Facebook

The United States shattered the global record for the number of new COVID infections this week, reporting more than 430,000 infections on two consecutive days.

“Over the last month, the U.S. daily case average has tripled, and the nation has reported more than 1.9 million new cases in the last week alone — an average of about three Americans testing positive for COVID-19 every second,” reports ABC News.

The CDC confirmed more than 500,000 new cases on December 27^th.

This is a developing story.

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio issued a stark reversal from his previous rhetoric regarding the COVID-19 pandemic; telling the Today Show he “doesn’t believe in shutdowns” to slow the spread of the virus.

“Given that some local officials are calling for you to cancel the in-person event altogether, why not scale back [NYC’s ball drop] even further?” asked NBC’s Kristen Welker.

“Look, I don’t believe in shutdowns. We have to fight our way through Covid,” claimed the Mayor.

Watch De Blasio’s comments above.

A CNN guest trashed Donald Trump this week when asked to comment on the former President; saying she was being “too kind” when labeling the Republican the “leader of a terror movement.”

“He continues to be the leader of an organization that threatens the use of violence to disrupt Democratic processes, that’s terrorism!” said National Security Analyst Juliette Kayyem. “It’s not just random violence. It’s targeted against Congress people.”

Watch her comments above.