Three days ago, the American polling and news aggregation site Real Clear Politics launched a âpolling accountability initiativeâ with a new pollster ranking system.
This was a significant admission by Real Clear Politics that the polling industry is largely a farce. After all: Real Clear Politics has simply aggregated various polls into a polling average for the last twenty years. What could possibly be the problem with that model? What could go wrong with a polling average? And the answer is obvious: the vast majority of polls are so biased (in favor of Democrats) that the sheer number of these fake polls manage to discredit even polling averages.
As the old adage goes: âgarbage in, garbage out.â
Real Clear Politics has admitted as much in their âpolling accountability initiativeâ press release: âthe public opinion survey industry has undergone momentous changes and faced a series of challenges in a profoundly altered political landscape.â
Hereâs the key paragraph:
There have been many news stories over the last several months questioning whether polling is broken in the United States. While there are certainly challenges in the polling industry, it is not entirely accurate to suggest polling is broken. There are many quality pollsters and media outlets that are doing excellent work in a constantly changing technological and political environment. However, there are also pollsters and news organizations that are doing less-than-stellar work and, unfortunately, many of the polls from these organizations receive a disproportionate amount of attention.
I donât know anyone who shares the rosy view of the Real Clear Politics crowd that âmany quality pollsters and media outlets are doing excellent work.â Indeed, if such a statement was credible, then why the need for a âpolling accountability initiativeâ at all? The truth is that the polling industryâs credibility is so tarnished that Politico ran an article recently on how Democrat pollsters know that nobody trusts them anymore.
Thereâs only a handful of credible polling firms: Rasmussen and Trafalgar immediately come to mind. The industry is riddled with frauds like Frank Luntz and Obama fanboys like Nate Silver. There are only a few industry critics like Big Data Pollâs Richard Baris who care to explain how the polls are rigged, and how public opinion is manipulated.
The field heâs talking about is the polling field. Itâs not a field thatâs unbelievably dishonest in favor of Republicans â itâs a field thatâs unbelievably dishonest in favor of Democrats. (Hereâs my full Absolute Truth interview with Richard Baris if youâre interested.) According to him, the polling industry is totally corrupt because: â98% of pollsters are left-wing.â
How about the supposedly ânonpartisanâ Cook Political Report for example? Baris explains that âCookâ is just another front group for the Democrat Party.
The purpose of the American polling industry is not to publish accurate public opinion about political races â itâs to oversample Democrats and undersample Republicans in political races.
Thatâs why the polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points in 2016 â and Andrew Gillum leading Ron DeSantis by 14 points in 2018 â and âa blue waveâ of Democrat victories that never materialized in 2020.
Thatâs why fourth-rate colleges conduct garbage polls just before the elections: Monmouth, Franklin & Marshall, The University of Nevada at Reno, Quinnipiac, Emerson, Siena.
The point of this garbage poll, for example, is to claim a 22 point lead for Josh Shapiro (D) against Doug Mastriano (R). Whatâs the point of claiming such an absurd lead?
Polls with absurd leads for Democrat candidates are meant to do one thing: suppress the Republican vote.