Note: The conservative political consultant Ryan Girdusky has shared his expertise on the upcoming midterm House elections with us in this guest column, which originally appeared in his National Populist Newsletter on Substack. Heâs also the founder of the 1776 Project PAC âwhich has helped conservative candidates to win school board races across America in order to stop critical race theory.
The midterm elections are fast approaching, and while Republicans are favored to win the House majority, the map is set to look much different than it had a decade ago when the GOP built on the Tea Party wave of 2010. Some of this is because of redistricting; and some of it has happened because regional politics changed.
Republicans have gained traction in some areas and receded in others. Hereâs exactly where we can expect to see Republicansâ path to the House majority.
Below is a map of The New York Timesâ 2012 election map ahead of election day. The solid blue and red areas were the places Democrats and Republicans were both certain to win, yellow were swing districts, and the striped areas were places either party was favored to win but not at all certain.
Compare that to the current map. I took away all the likely Republican and Democrat districts and made them either solid Republican, solid Democrat or competitive for either party.
(Map of 2022 House elections)
First letâs look at the Northeast. The Trump realignment has given Republicans a considerably higher chance at winning a seat in Maine and Rhode Island, while the swing districts in Connecticut and New Hampshire remain up for grabs. Democrats on the other hand have turned the western district of New Hampshire into a fairly reliable seat and the GOP has lost all chances of picking up any seats in the Bay State.
Over in New York, which experienced heavy redistricting, Republicans have gained momentum in Long Island, which are home to two pretty solid Republican seats and two additional competitive districts in Nassau County. Additionally, the only swing district in New York City, home to Staten Island, is very likely going to be in GOP hands for the next decade. In upstate areas, the districts around the Canadian border outside of the cities of Buffalo and Rochester have all moved solidly Republican. Where have Democrats gained traction? The Hudson Valley, which has seen a large migration of people from New York City as well as new immigrants moving to the region, making them much more competitive.
Next letâs look at the districts in Mid-Atlantic and Midwest. Democrats did a masterful job at redistricting seats in New Jersey. Republicans have seen the number of seats theyâre competitive in cut in half from six to three, despite the Democrat advantage in the state decreasing. Part of their advantage also comes from the fact that Republicans have gained a lock on South Jersey while losing support in the suburbs in North Jersey.
That trend also continues in Virginia, where Republicans have lost traction in the suburbs of Washington DC and in Virginia Beach as well as Pennsylvania, where the Philly suburbs have become increasingly Democratic while Western and Northeastern PA have moved towards Republicans.
Democrats have also lost traction throughout districts in Appalachia including Eastern Ohio, West Virginia, and Kentucky. Democrats have gained in Ohioâs first district which includes the city of Cincinnati. Lastly, in the state of Indiana, Democrats have lost control in the Northwestern part of the state they used to dominate. Even the heavily black 1st district has a chance of flipping this year.