Polling Discrepancies Confuse Campaigns

  Two polls were released this week in the race for Oklahoma Governor. The results were significantly different, This is usually explained when you look at the samplings and assumptions about who will actually cast a vote, vs who sorta intends to... but usually doesn't.

• Oklahoma Strategic Solutions provided a poll for an undisclosed client. They sampled exclusively Republicans and reached out to 500 participants.  
• SoonerPoll did a poll for Oklahoma TV stations. They had a base of just over 600 voters, but only 380 of them were self-identified Republicans.

  There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the SoonerPoll, of which answers were provided by the only voters who count in a Republican Primary (party members).
  SoonerPoll did breakdown the male/female support for each Republican candidate. O.S.S. did not.
OSS sampled a large group of 65+ year old voters than did SoonerPoll.
  We have no idea whether the Republicans whom SoonerPoll interviewed were as conservative as the OSS pollsters were interviewing.

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Okla. Strategic Solutions  SoonerPoll

Sampling  Respondents

500
Repubs.

331 Reps.
180 Dems
  23 Ind.
  88 Not Sure

How would you describe yourself?

Very conservative
Somewhat Conservative 
Moderate 
Somewhat Liberal
Very liberal
not sure 

55%
33%
9%
1%
​<1%
2%

25%
25%
30%
  9%
  1%
​  5%

Age Range

18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65 and older

  6%
11%
17%
24%
​42%

  6%
13%
18%
25%
39%

Gender

Male 
Female

47%
​53%

45%
55%

Congressional District ​

CD 1
CD 2 
CD 3
CD 4 
CD 5

24%
15%
23%
20%
​18%

(unknown)

  The largest discrepancy in the two polls was Gary Richardson's 13% in OSS, vs 3% in SoonerPoll.
  At the same time, Bill Shapard's SoonerPoll firm awarded about 3% more to Todd Lamb and Kevin Stitt.  Mick Cornett was given a 20.4% share in SoonerPoll, but only a 13% share in the OSS poll.
   One of the internals we need to address is the high rate of voter turnout among those age 55 and older. they account for nearly 2/3 of the total vote count in a Republican primary. Connecting with the older voters is essential in any GOP primary.
  Many say that this primary election is likely to see more younger voters, given the cultural & generational divide on the issue of cannabis medicines (SQ788).